A new study conducted by a Dutch engineering consultant found that the average sea level rise in 2020 was around 1.5 millimeters per year, "significantly lower" than the 3 to 4 millimeters often projected by climate scientists and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Hessel Voortman and researcher Rob de Vos checked actual observations of more than 200 tide stations against projections and models.

"It is crazy that it had not been done. I started doing this research in 2021 by doing the literature review. 'Who has done the comparison of the projections with the observations?' And there were none," Voortman told independent journalist Michael Shellenberger.

Voortman and de Vos published their peer-reviewed article this week in the Journal of Marine Science and Engineering.

The United Nations' IPCC issued a report in 2021 projecting much higher rates of sea level rise. However, Voortman and de Vos found that "on average, the rate of rise projected by the IPCC is biased upward with approximately 2 mm per year in comparison with the observed rate."

In a press release, the pair said the IPCC "significantly overestimate local sea level rise in 2020," the New York Post reported.

Voortman, who works in flood protection and coastal infrastructure projects, expanded his research after publishing results in 2023 that showed "sea level projections were exceeding sea level observations" across the Dutch coast.

"When designing coastal infrastructure, engineers have long accounted for sea level rise. Both measurements and projections are important sources of information. Understanding the differences between them is crucial for practical applications," Voortman said.

That led to their conclusion published this week: "Our analysis of more than 200 tide gauge stations around the world shows that there is no global acceleration of sea level rise. The research also shows that IPCC models overestimate local sea level rise in 2020."

In a post on X, Shellenberger wrote, "Climate change will make oceans rise 3 - 10 feet by the end of this century, said scientists and the media. Nonsense. A new, first-ever global study of real world data, not models, finds no evidence climate change accelerated sea level rise. This is a massive scientific scandal."

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