The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) issued a stark warning this week that the reported 28-point peace plan being circulated by the Trump administration for ending the Russia-Ukraine war amounts to nothing less than Ukraine's "full capitulation" to Moscow's longstanding demands.

According to ISW's assessment, the document — which U.S. officials have described as a "working" or "live" proposal — mirrors all of Russia's 2022 negotiating requirements and would dramatically shift the strategic landscape in Moscow's favor.

"All available reporting continues to indicate that the stipulations of the reported 28-point Russia-US peace plan amount to Ukraine's full capitulation to Russia's original war demands," ISW wrote in its Nov. 20 analysis, adding that the provisions "amount to Ukraine's full capitulation, even though the battlefield situation has changed markedly in the years since."

The full text of the plan — published by several Western outlets and detailed by Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada Deputy Oleksiy Honcharenko — includes sweeping concessions to Russia.

Among its most consequential points:

-Ukraine would withdraw from remaining unoccupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk, turning them into a "neutral demilitarized buffer zone" that would receive international recognition as Russian territory.

-The United States and Ukraine would recognize all of Crimea, Donetsk, and Luhansk as de facto Russian territory.

-The front line in Kherson and Zaporizhia would be frozen, locking in Russian territorial gains.

-Ukraine's armed forces would be capped at 600,000 personnel.

-Ukraine would be required to amend its constitution to permanently renounce NATO membership, while NATO would formally agree not to admit Ukraine "any time in the future."

-NATO would be expected not to expand further and would be barred from deploying troops to Ukraine.

-The U.S. would provide "reliable" security guarantees to Ukraine — though these guarantees would be revoked if Ukraine ever launched missiles into Russia or attempted to reclaim lost territory.

-Ukraine must "reject and prohibit all Nazi ideologies" and hold elections within 100 days of ratifying the agreement, echoing a central Kremlin propaganda line.

-Reconstruction funding would come from the U.S., frozen Russian assets, and international donors.

ISW emphasizes it has not independently verified every provision but notes that the leaked draft aligns closely with reporting from Nov. 19 and 20, as well as with terms the Kremlin has publicly articulated since the war began.

Notably, the plan contains no concessions from Russia, a fact ISW argues would embolden Moscow to regroup militarily and prepare for renewed aggression.

"Accepting Russian demands would set conditions for renewed Russian aggression against Ukraine," the think tank warned. The terms, it added, would "capitulate to Russian President Vladimir Putin's theory of victory," which relies on outlasting Western military and economic support for Kyiv.

The battlefield implications, according to the assessment, would be severe.

A forced Ukrainian withdrawal from Donetsk would leave Kyiv's critical "Fortress Belt" — a linchpin of its defense industrial base — exposed and "largely indefensible."

Russia would gain expanded staging grounds for future offensives into Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.

That, ISW argues, would give Moscow the ability to launch a new invasion "with a blooded, rested, and reconstituted military at a time of its choosing."

The purported economic and geopolitical provisions further alarm analysts.

The plan reportedly includes multistage sanction relief, reintegration of Russia into global markets, long-term U.S.–Russia economic cooperation, and a 50% allocation of frozen Russian asset profits to a new binational investment vehicle.

It also proposes an extension of U.S.–Russia nuclear agreements, including New START.

ISW says these concessions would allow the Kremlin to reset relations with Washington without ending its war aims.

Senior Russian officials have responded by restating Moscow's original objectives and rejecting any implication that Russia should make meaningful compromises.

Some Kremlin-aligned lawmakers even dismissed elements of the proposed plan that appear favorable to Russia, including suggestions that Moscow might compensate Ukraine for its occupation of Donbas.

ISW concludes that only robust and continued Western military aid — paired with economic pressure — can counter Putin's belief that time favors Russia.

The reported plan, it warns, "cedes all Western and Ukrainian leverage to Russia," undermining the prospect of "an enduring, just, and mutually beneficial peace."