The midterm elections might be more than a year away, but a new Rasmussen poll shows that a razor-thin plurality of voters currently favors Democrat House candidates over Republican ones.
If elections for Congress were held today, 45% of likely U.S. voters say they would choose the Democrat candidate, while 44% say they would choose the Republican, according to the survey. Another 9% say they would pick another candidate and 3% are not sure.
Ninety-three percent of the poll's respondents say they are likely to vote in next year's congressional midterm elections, including 73% who say they are very likely to vote in the 2026 midterms. Democrats lead the GOP, 48% to 45%, among very likely voters.
According to the survey, 73% say it makes a difference whether Republicans or Democrats control Congress, while 15% say it doesn't make much difference. Twelve percent are not sure. Among those voters who say it matters which party is in charge of Congress, Democrats lead Republicans, 48% to 47%.
If the midterm elections were held today, 88% of Democrat voters would cast their ballot for their party's congressional candidate, compared to 85% of Republican voters who would vote for their party's candidate. Among independent voters, 39% say they would vote for the Republican candidate and 35% say they would vote for the Democrat if the midterms were held today. Rejecting the two main parties, another 21% of independents say they would vote for a third-party congressional candidate.
The poll found that 79% of Republicans, 75% of Democrats, and 73% of independents say they are very likely to vote in the 2026 congressional midterm elections.
Large majorities of voters say it makes a difference whether Republicans or Democrats control Congress, including 81% of Republicans, 77% of Democrats, and 59% of independents.
Democrat congressional candidates have an 11-point edge with women voters, 49% to 38%, while Republicans have an 8-point advantage with men, 49% to 41%.
The Democrat candidate would garner 44% of the white vote, 64% of the black vote, 37% of the Hispanic vote, and 29% of the vote of other minorities if the congressional elections were held today. According to the survey, 47% of white voters, 20% of black voters, 51% of Hispanic voters, and 48% of other minority voters would cast their ballots for the Republican candidate.
Among voters age 65 and older, Democrats have a 10-point advantage over Republicans, 53% to 43%, while voters in their 40s favor the GOP by an 8-point margin, 44% to 36%.
The poll was conducted May 14-15 and May 18 and surveyed 1,012 likely U.S. voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Nicole Weatherholtz ✉
Nicole Weatherholtz, a Newsmax general assignment reporter covers news, politics, and culture. She is a National Newspaper Association award-winning journalist.
© 2025 Newsmax. All rights reserved.