As U.S.-China trade talks kick off, trillions of dollars hang in the balance in market valuations and consumer sales for Apple, Nvidia, Nike and scores of other iconic American companies.

The average firm in the S&P 500 derived 6.1% of its revenue in 2024 from selling goods in China, according to an analysis by Bloomberg.

“The bottom line is that if the U.S. has to decouple completely from China, it would result in a significant decline in earnings for S&P 500 companies no longer selling products to Chinese consumers,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo.

Selling to China consumers generated $1.2 trillion in revenue for U.S. firms in 2024, according to Slok — four times more than the $295 billion trade deficit in goods between the countries, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

In the past five weeks since April 2’s Liberation Day — when Trump announced tariffs against virtually all U.S. major trading partners — companies citing trade uncertainty have been warning of impact to earnings or have withdrawn their annual forecasts.

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The S&P 500 exploded into historic volatility in the first three weeks after the tariffs were first announced, bringing it down 8% year-to-date through April 8. Since then, however, stocks have largely recovered, with the broad equities benchmark down 3.4%. Many individual stocks, though, have been seriously hit in the trade-war crossfire, including Apple Inc., Nvidia Corp., and Tesla Inc.

Mattel withdrew its forecast that it would return to net profits in 2025, citing tariffs.

Wall Street analysts, in turn, have sharply lowered their earnings estimates for the S&P 500 benchmark index this year. Currently, the consensus is for earnings for the index to be $265 in 2025, down from $273 in January.

“Technology and apparel companies are at the epicenter of the trade embargoes for now,” said Joe Gilbert, portfolio manager at Integrity Asset Management.

Here are five key sectors worth watching as the United States and China begin trade negotiations in earnest:

Chipmakers

Companies related to semiconductor chips — including Monolithic Power Systems Inc., KLA Corp., Lam Research Corp. and Qualcomm Inc. — were the four S&P 500 companies with the highest exposure to China, Bloomberg analysis found.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc. said U.S. curbs on sales to China will cost it $1.5 billion in revenue in 2025, and Qualcomm Inc. gave a lukewarm revenue forecast.

Intel’s revenue forecast for the current quarter also did not meet Wall Street expectations, and the company warned that the tariffs could lead to a recession and quash demand for semiconductor chips.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is down 9.7% this year, whereas the S&P 500 is down 3.4%.

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Consumer Goods

Companies exposed to Bloomberg’s evaluation of supply chains include Nike Inc., Estee Lauder Cos., and Philip Morris International Inc.

On Wednesday, Steven Madden Ltd. pulled its February forecast, which had expected sales to expand 20% in 2025, calling the tariffs “meaningful near-term headwinds.”

Amazon said it is gearing up for a tough and uncertain business climate in the upcoming months.

The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is down 11% year-to-date.

Autos

Automakers and manufacturers of auto components are the most exposed S&P 500 sector to international demand. BorgWarner Inc. and Aptiv Plc obtain a large portion of their revenues from China, while General Motors Co. imported nearly 55,000 cars from China last year.

GM, Ford Motor Co., and Harley-Davidson Inc. have all withdrawn their outlooks for 2025, citing ambiguity around U.S. trade.

The S&P Composite 1,500 Automobiles and Components Index is down 23% so far in 2025.

Industrials

U.S. industrial makers — freight operators and big machinery makers — are heavily dependent on global supply chains.

Caterpillar warned of a big hit to its profits from China’s 125% retaliatory tariffs. In the second quarter, Caterpillar forecasts that tariffs will cost it $250 million to $350 million. One consulting firm said that Honeywell International Inc. is one of the largest U.S. industrial companies with vulnerabilities to China.

China canceled its order of 50 Boeing jets last month, and Beijing officials ordered airlines not to accept any more Boeing jet deliveries.

Matson Inc. this week said its shipping container volume has dropped 30% year-over-year since President Donald Trump rolled out the tariffs on China.

Materials

Sales from chemical makers, metals manufacturers and mining companies also hang in the balance amid the U.S.-China trade war. Eastman Chemical Co. and Freeport-McMoRan Inc., a copper producer, both offered disappointing outlooks for the year.

Mosaic Co., which produces fertilizers that China buys, said it expects Chinese buyers to shift to other nations for grains, including Brazil.