Donald Trump has been successful to this point, relative to tariffs. So far, he has been using these tariffs to force nations to the negotiating table.
Like it or not, that has happened. That's not to say it hasn't come with significant disruption.
Then, suddenly, the administration radically changed its tariff policy.
Was this a strategy from the beginning, a significant course correction, a retreat, or a reaction to investors selling their safest assets?
Market forces have little regard for individual opinions. They do, however, reveal trends.
Since "Liberation Day" earlier this month, one of the more glaring trends was the sudden, large-scale selloff of U.S. Treasuries.
At one point, 10-year bond yields were set explode. Bond yields go up as bond prices decrease.
Trading at 4.27% the day after Trump's 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs worldwide (save for China), those yields were noticeably under the peak of 4.51% prior to the pause. They are also well below the high of almost 5% hit in late 2023 and the double-digit levels seen 40 years ago.
Individual investors' 401(k)s and individual retirement accounts (IRAs) are inextricably linked to the stock market. The degree to which this reality factored in to Trump's decision on the pause paled in comparison to the drop in bond prices and the rise in yields.
The bond market is what most likely caught the attention of Trump's better angels.
In the world of trade and tariffs, there are few constants: only tactics, timing, and leverage. And under President Donald Trump, America's trade posture has never been more fluid, dynamic, or, frankly, more disruptive.
Since April 2 — the point when Trump broke from decades of conventional trade orthodoxy— Washington has embraced tariffs not as static taxes, but as live ammunition in an ongoing negotiation.
The result? A whirlwind of international recalibration, reciprocal responses, and now, a defining standoff with China.
Tariffs were never the endgame; they were the opening salvo.
There will be unforeseen and unintended casualties. We've already seen some of them.
Initially, the Trump administration aimed wide. From allies to adversaries, countries around the world were hit with sweeping tariffs on steel, aluminum, and a host of other goods.
The idea was reciprocity: If our trade partners were charging us, we'd charge back. It was a message sent across the global marketplace: America would no longer play the polite loser in lopsided trade deals.
But even powerful tools, if swung in every direction, can backfire. By midstream, the U.S. found itself being met with a mirror image of its strategy: Reciprocal tariffs were being slapped on U.S. exports from Europe, Canada, South Korea, and beyond.
The United States, from a trade standpoint, appeared to be at war with the world.
Then, a strategic shift.
The administration recalibrated, narrowing its focus.
Tariffs on key allies were paused or rolled back. It granted temporary exemptions.
In response, the European Union put a pause on its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. Washington pulled its economic punches, but only for some.
There was one glaring exception: China.
Trump's critics say he blinked. His supporters are saying he simply using the "Art of the Deal," as far back as April Fool's Day.
Even Geraldo Rivera referred to Trump's moves as "brilliant" and said, "He suckered China in."
Regardless of how we got here, what we're seeing now is a distilled confrontation: a high-noon-style trade duel between the United States and its single greatest economic and geopolitical rival.
This is not a brawl with everyone at once; it's a one-on-one clash between superpowers. And the stakes are enormous.
China is not just another trade competitor. It is a state-controlled, surveillance-heavy economy that plays by its own rules.
It has spent decades leveraging unfair trade practices, exploiting World Trade Organization loopholes, and buying influence through Belt and Road-style economic coercion.
The Trump administration's approach may be rougher around the edges, but it recognizes a fundamental truth: The old ways weren't working.
In that sense, he has been using tariffs as a tool of negotiation. This most recent pause is actually causing nations all over the world to come to the table, looking for a deal.
Every nation except China, that is.
American workers, manufacturers, and innovators have been losing ground to a system that devalues fairness.
It's not about isolationism. It's about reestablishing boundaries and demanding respect in global commerce.
Trump's focus on China shines a light on a broader economic reckoning: Either we address this imbalance now, or we allow it to define the next generation.
As someone who served on the House Ways and Means Committee and dealt directly with trade issues, I've seen the pitfalls of both excessive protectionism and naive globalism. The answer lies in balance.
Tariffs can be tools, but only if they're aimed with precision and paired with a coherent long-term strategy. The administration's recent course correction suggests it's learned that lesson.
One thing's for certain: This trade duel won't end quietly.
Jim Renacci was raised in a blue-collar union family, pursuing the American dream, leading to his operating over 60 businesses, creating 1,500 new jobs, and employing over 3,000 people. As a four-term conservative U.S. congressman, Jim served on the powerful U.S. House Ways and Means and Budget Committees, cutting government spending. Read More of Jim Renacci's Reports — Here.