One of the most bitter U.S. House races in the nation is taking place in suburban Long Island, New York, and the Republican appears to be leading.
Freshman Rep. Anthony D'Esposito, R-N.Y., has been a strong conservative, and keeping his swing district in GOP hands will be a crucial test of the House staying Republican.
D'Esposito is almost a perfect fit for the Nassau County district that's angry about woke, soft-on-crime policies coming out of New York City and Gov. Kathy Hochul's Albany.
A former New York Police Department detective and onetime Hempstead town councilman, D'Esposito has faced a tough race from liberal Democrat Laura Gillen, former Hempstead town supervisor.
Internal polling shows D'Esposito is in a tight race, but the "Trump effect" is helping.
Polls show former President Donald Trump leading in the district by a good margin, a factor that should help D'Esposito.
Still, Democrats see the 4th District as winnable and have been pouring in cash and nasty invective to stop D'Esposito.
The local liberal paper Newsday has been publishing a series of hit pieces, reporting that D'Esposito placed the daughter of his longtime fiancée on his congressional payroll.
Reportedly, he also hired another onetime girlfriend as a part-time staffer.
Although D'Esposito, 42 and unmarried, has not violated any House rules for the hires, he did remove one promptly from the payroll.
"No one here is writing Congressman D'Esposito off — not by a long shot," New York State Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar told Newsmax.
Kassar's Conservative Party ballot line also carries D'Esposito.
Gillen lost the race two years ago, drawing 48% against D'Esposito.
Now, with the backing of pro-choice EMILY's List and most labor unions, she's hoping to win back the seat.
D'Esposito supporters note Trump lost the district four years ago, but is now pulling a margin of at least 5 points in polls.
The "Trump effect" should play a key role in D'Esposito's reelection.
In endorsing D'Esposito, Trump said the congressman is a "fantastic and highly effective representative" for Long Island who is "working hard to uphold the rule of law, create jobs, and lower inflation."
Crime remains one of the district's most concerning issues. D'Esposito has also won the endorsement of the Nassau County Police Benevolent Association.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.