With the 2024 election cycle coming to a close, a strong case can be made that the hardest-fought and most-watched of all 435 U.S. House races is in Nebraska's 2nd District, which includes Omaha.
That's because Nebraska is one of two states, the other being Maine, in which electoral votes are cast by U.S. House districts rather than winner-take-all on the basis of who carries the state. In contrast to the other two heavily Republican districts in Nebraska, the 2nd District, while leaning GOP in voter registration, could go to either major party.
Democrat nominee Kamala Harris has put special emphasis on the 2nd District, with vice presidential nominee Tim Walz making a recent stop in Omaha.
A YouGov poll last week showed Harris beating Trump districtwide by 52% to 44%.
This all-out Democrat effort apparently has helped state Sen. Tony Vargas in his rematch against GOP Rep. Don Bacon. YouGov showed Vargas defeating Bacon 50% to 46%.
Retired U.S. Air Force Gen. Bacon has always had tight races since first winning the district in 2016. Last year, he supported House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the successful attempt to oust him, but refused to back Freedom Caucus-endorsed Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, for speaker. Earlier this year, the Nebraska Republican Party pointedly refused to endorse Bacon in his winning primary against MAGA candidate Dan Frei.
"Bacon should win 51-49," former Omaha Mayor Hal Daub predicted to Newsmax.
Daub, who held the 2nd from 1980-88, noted, "Don’s bipartisanship in this left-leaning district should cause sufficient ticket-splitting, in spite of being hugely outspent by both Vargas and Harris as they chase the single electoral vote here.
"Vargas’ campaign rhetoric is right out of the DNC/Harris/New York [George] Soros playbook and the longer they espouse it, the more rejection they get from center left, center, and center-right voters here."