A week ago, elections in Japan gave the new, MAGA-style party a major boost in the upper House of parliament and helped reduce the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to minorities in both houses of parliament for the first time since 1955.
Although embattled Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba insists he will remain in power, sources in Tokyo told Newsmax last week they expect he will be gone by September at the very latest, and Japan will have its fourth head of government in as many years.
In stating his desire to hold office despite the election setback, Ishiba also made clear his desire to finish the ratification of the trade agreement with the U.S. that President Donald Trump extolled at the White House on Friday before leaving for Scotland.
Trump told reporters that Japan agreed to invest $550 billion into the U.S. in a variety of enterprises — among them energy, semiconductors, and shipbuilding — and that the U.S. would keep 90% of the profits.
In addition, Trump announced that under the proposed deal, Japan would open up its markets to American car and truck exports as well as agricultural products, and that while Japan would still face a 15% tariff, U.S. businesses will have a zero tariff.
The Japanese parliament will now have to give its OK to the agreement after examining "the perspective of the national interest" and "how it will affect the Japanese economy," according to Kazuhiko Shigetoku, a member of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party in the lower House of parliament.
Assuming the agreement is enacted and Ishiba leaves, his successor is likely to be more right-of-center — that is, committed to Japan further strengthening its defenses and taking a harder-line on immigration. Former Prime Minister Taro Aso and the faction of LDP members that were followers of the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be in the forefront of the movement for a more right-of-center prime minister, and the most-discussed possibility is former Minister of State for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi.
Takaichi, who seeks to become Japan's first-ever female prime minister, is a member of the nationalist Nippon Kaigi organization (which seeks to change "the postwar national consciousness" from the verdict on World War II of the Tokyo Tribunal "as a fundamental problem") and vigorous supporter of repealing Article 9 of the Constitution and thus permitting Japan to rearm and maintain military forces.
In the race to be LDP party president and thus prime minister in 2024, Takaichi led in the initial balloting of members of the National Diet (lower house of parliament) but lost to Ishiba in the resulting runoff.
"The competitors in the last LDP president election — Takaichi, Shinjiro Koizumi Jr. [former Environment Minister and son of a much-loved former prime minister], and [Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa] Hayashi all show desire to be Ishiba's successor," Hideya Yamamoto, former Washington bureau chief for the Japanese news service Sankei Shimbun, told Newsmax. "It is too early to say who will be the winner before Ishba agrees with his step down."
Yuya Watase, a co-founder of the new MAGA-style Sanseito Party, agreed "Ishiba's defeat [in elections for the House of Councilors last week] has strengthened Takaichi's influence. But her backers, the Aso and Abe factions, have lost key members in the House of Representatives [lower House]. So it is uncertain whether she can consolidate her leadership within the party."
Sanseito, which roughly means "Participate in Politics," captured worldwide attention in last week's elections when it skyrocketed from one seat in the House of Councilors to a never-anticipated 15. Clearly taking his cue from Trump, party leader Sohei Kamiya rallied disenchanted voters with his cry of "Japanese First!" and calls for greater restrictions on foreign workers and investment. Kamiya's attacks on the established parties support of greater immigration as a response to Japan's aging population particularly resonated with voters.
As to what comes next for Sanseito, co-founder Watase told us the new party "will not enter the cabinet immediately but will strengthen its local electoral base in the local elections and aim to enter the cabinet after the House of Representatives election [estimated to be in 2027]. This was the plan devised when the party was founded by Kamiya, and it remains unchanged."
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.