In less than 24 hours, French voters will take a step in electing a new Parliament that, with each day, appears more than likely to be run by the nationalist RN (Rassemblement National) headed by three-term presidential candidate Marine Le Pen.
Should the RN win a majority or close to it in the 577-seat Assemblee Nacionale (Parliament) on Sunday and in a subsequent runoff July 5, centrist President Emmanuel Macron would almost surely have to appoint as prime minister the newest political star in France: Jordan Bardella, Le Pen’s protégé, who, at 28, would be the youngest head of the French government since Napoleon Bonaparte became First Consul of the Republic in 1799 at age 30.
With fascination over the recent rise of "nationalist" and "populist" politicians in Europe, political eyes around the world will be on France to see just how well the RN does and, if it secures a majority or close to it, how it will govern.
Under the unique Constitution of France’s 5th Republic, Macron would continue to oversee foreign policy and defense as president, but domestic policy would be firmly in the hands of a Bardella and a Cabinet he would name.
Bardella and his government would almost certainly pursue a hardline policy against illegal immigration, and what some call "Islamization." This part of the RN agenda could include beefed-up law enforcement and very possibly deportation of noncitizens. Pew Research estimates that there are 300,000-400,000 illegal immigrants in France — three times fewer than in the United Kingdom or Germany.
Making the dealing with Islamization problematic is, as Olivier Roy, a European University professor, wrote in his book, "Globalized Islam," "how a new generation of young Muslims attempted to recast Islam in a western cultural context." In other words, there are Muslims who are assimilating into Western society.
"And the idea of ‘rounding up’ militant Muslims as a ‘danger to the state’ is not that far-fetched," veteran Telegraph correspondent Anne-Elisabeth Moutet told Newsmax, recalling the beheading of teacher Samuel Paty by a militant Islamist after showing his students cartoons of the Prophet Muhammad as an example of free speech. Macron, long known as a champion of a more tolerant France, moved to a more right-of-center policy on social spending, immigration, and law and order.
Bardella and the RN underscored their positions even more firmly. Days before the election, the prospective prime minister told the Financial Times he would fight a "cultural battle," vowed to amend the constitution to provide "national preference" for citizens over foreigners for social benefits, end birthright citizenship for people born in France to foreign parents (which has existed in France since 1515), and make it easier to shut down mosques, ban the Muslim veils and "burkini" (swim clothing that covers one’s entire body), and make deportation easier.
"I intend to take back control of immigration in our country," Bardella told the Times.
In terms of economics, LePen, Bardella, and the RN are in no way, shape, or form fiscal conservatives or "deficit hawks." Along with spending on immigration reform and law enforcement, the right-of-center party’s manifesto includes lowering the pension age, nationalizing the highways and lifting restrictions on car use (done in the name of the environment), and repair of the decaying state of the highways.
Such positions have alarmed much of the French business community and Bardella has promised to roll back some of the RN’s big spending agenda. He also said he would seek a 2 billion euro cut in France’s contribution to the EU — although talk of "Frexit" to leave the EU has been gone for years and the party earlier this year also removed its platform plank calling on France to leave NATO.
Although strong Ukraine backer Macron would continue to wield authority over national defense and foreign policy even if the party wins a majority in Parliament, columnist Moutet believes Bardella as prime minister and his eventual finance minister could hold up funding of a move by the president to send troops to Ukraine — something the RN vehemently opposes and that Macron has not ruled out.
"It’s a deeply dicey move and difficult to do it, but the RN could try to hold up funds for [French] troops in Ukraine," said Moutet.
A last-minute Opinion Way poll conducted for the publication Les Echos showed that the RN gained momentum to the end, with 37%, followed by the leftist Popular Front coalition (including Socialists, Greens, and Communists) at 28%, and Macron’s Together Party coalition with 20%. A separate survey by BFM-TV translates the RN’s showing into 260 to 295 seats (more than a majority in Parliament).
In a few hours, the results will be in — and the whole world will be watching.