Democrats did eke out a win Tuesday night in the special election in New York's upstate 19th District (Hudson Valley) but in losing the race, Republican Marc Molinaro is still likely to end up in Congress next year.
With near-final results in, Ulster County Executive and Democrat Pat Ryan had eked out a win (51% to 49%) over Dutchess County Executive Molinaro.
"Ryan won mainly because of turnout," Henry Olsen, Senior Fellow at the Center for Ethics and Public Policy and author of a much-praised book on the blue-collar vote, told Newsmax. "Turnout in the two Democrat counties — Ulster and Columbia — was higher as a share of the 2020 vote than the Republican counties."
Olsen and other election experts agree that Ryan's $2 million war chest and the strong turnout among Democrats for him was fueled in large part by his strong denunciation of the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade on the abortion debate. Ryan's TV spots hit this hard, while Molinaro's campaign emphasized inflation and crime as issues.
Ryan and Molinaro are likely to end up serving in Congress together. The 19th District, from which Democrat Rep. Antonio Delgado resigned to become lieutenant governor earlier this year, will disappear under new lines drawn for House districts in the Empire State.
Molinaro will run in a new 19th District to the north of the present 19th and will face Ithaca attorney and Democrat Josh Riley. Ryan, who will serve the remaining four months of Delgado's term, will be running in the Poughkeepsie-based 18th District which includes the bulk of the district now represented by Democrat Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (who is running in the 17th). Ryan will face Republican Assemblyman Colin Schmitt.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.