In Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District, it is taken for granted that Republican Rep. Don Bacon will retire in 2026 after a decade in Congress.
Among national Republicans, there is also growing nervousness that Democrats will capture the Omaha-based district and, in the most closely divided House since 1930, that such a pickup could well tip the House from Republican to Democrat next year.
"We are a true purple district, albeit leaning more Democrat than Republican," David Kramer, an Omaha attorney and former Nebraska Republican Party chair, told Newsmax.
"We had a three-term Republican mayor who was moderate and pretty popular. But he lost to a Democrat last month in significant party because Democrats are super-motivated from everything going on nationally," he said.
Kramer also pointed out that Kamala Harris carried the 2nd District by 51% to 48% over now-President Donald Trump in 2024 and Joe Biden beat Trump 52% to 48% four years before.
Bacon, a retired Air Force general, has never won with more than 50.9% of the vote in five trips to the polls since 2016.
Although Bacon closely identifies with Ronald Reagan ("Reaganite Republican" is his self-characterization) and has an overall conservative voting record, recent statements and actions put him outside the "Make America Great Again" movement and distant from Trump.
In a recent interview with The New York Times, Bacon was critical of Elon Musk and the informal Department of Government Efficiency and strongly voiced opposition to the Trump administration's plan to cut $400 million from budget by ending the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, or PEPFAR, the global program for AIDS relief begun by President George W. Bush and credited with saving more than 25 million lives worldwide.
Should Bacon step down, the Republican nominee is likely to be former state Sen. Brett Lindstrom. Considered a strong conservative, he lost the Republican primary for governor to Jim Pillen, who had the blessing of Sen. Pete Ricketts, the outgoing governor at the time.
Democrats already appear united behind state Sen. John Cavanaugh, namesake son of the 2nd District's Democrat congressman from 1976 to 1980.
"It's going to be hard for the Republicans s to keep this seat regardless of whether Don runs or not," Kramer told us.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.