Pundits are wondering how popular six-term Rep. Scott Perry, R-Pa., could be in political danger in a district that has only sent a Democrat to Congress once in the last 64 years.
Last week, Republicans in the York-Harrisburg-based 10th District got a jolt when a Susquehanna Polling showed Democrat and former TV anchor Janelle Stelson leading former House Freedom Caucus Chair Perry by 48% to 39%.
Several Keystone State GOP operatives who talked to Newsmax said the gradual growth of the suburbs in York County and Harrisburg has worked to the advantage of Democrats.
In 2018, Perry barely survived his toughest race with 51.3%.
In 2022, retired U.S. Army National Guard Brig. Gen. Perry won with 53% and in 2024 with 54%.
Also working to the advantage of Stelson has been the repeated efforts of Democrats (and the local media) to link Perry to the Jan. 6 uprising at the U.S. Capitol.
A strong supporter of former President Donald Trump's claims of election fraud in 2020, there is no evidence Perry ever supported an "insurrection" at the Capitol.
Christopher Nicholas, manager of the late Sen. Arlen Specter's 2004 Senate campaign and editor of the Pennsylvania Political Digest, told Newsmax, "Scott Perry is an unflinching conservative and has not changed how he's voted or acted even as his district has moved slightly to the left and that's why you have a close race."
Other Pennsylvania strategists say Perry should benefit from "shy Trump voters" – local Democrats who say they are voting party line but will actually cast their ballots for Trump and, hopefully, other Republicans like Perry.