U.S. House Republicans finally decided on a new speaker.
Before that, the fractious Republican members of the House of Representatives appeared rudderless if not powerless since the unseating of Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House.
They had much trouble reaching a consensus with such a narrow majority.
The problem for Republicans is that as divided as Americans are, narrow majorities may be the best they can do for years to come.
It’s no secret that the country is deeply divided.
Much of that division is driven by government. Every decision that governments make picks a winner and a loser and someone to pay for it.
A government that does one thing, finds two sets of competitors for government favors.
Our governments, which hand out nearly $10 trillion in government largesse and which impose countless regulations, foster countless competitions and divisions.
Amidst those political battles, we have sorted ourselves into Red and Blue states as well as Red and Blue Counties. That sorting has also resulted in precious few House seats actually being in play from election to election.
In 2022, Ballotpedia identified just 33 of the 435 House races (8.5%) as true battleground races. For 2024, the Cook Political Report only lists 22 seats as either party having a good chance of winning.
Consistent with that, after the 2022 election, the Republicans held a narrow House Majority of 222 to 213. That was a direct reversal of when the Democrats won control of the House with a 222 to 213 House Majority.
As a result of the narrow margins, and see-saw elections, the House has flipped control 5 times since 1994 after 38 straight years of Democrat control.
Overall, the recent Republican majorities have been as follows:
2022: 222 R seats to 213 D seats
2016: 241 R seats to 194 D seats
2014: 247 R seats to 188 D seats (the highest majority since 1928)
2012: 234 R seats to 201 D seats
2010: 242 R seats to 193 D seats
2004: 233 R seats to 201 D seats
2002: 229 R seats to 205 D seats
2000: 220 R seats to 213 D seats
1998: 223 R seats to 211 D seats
1996: 226 R seats to 207 D seats
1994: 230 R seats to 204 D seats
(Avg. margin 230 to 205)
The Democratic majorities have been:
2020: 222 Democrats to 213 Republicans
2018: 235 Democrats to 199 Republicans
2008: 257 D seats – 178 R seats
2006: 233 D seats to 202 R seats
(Avg. margin 236 to 199)
The huge majorities of the of the 1800s, and most of the 1900s, over 100 seats at times, are no more.
Since 1994, when Republicans have been in control of the House, they have averaged 230 seats.
However, getting that many seats in the future may prove difficult.
House seats are more gerrymandered than ever.
If the Cook Political Report is right for 2024, that would mean few House seats would change and America will remain in that narrow range.
Of course, narrow margins of victory do not hamper Democrats. Throughout the 2021 to 2023 term, Democrats acted in unison and passed many big government spending programs.
Gone are the days where they believed they had to moderate their actions in fear of losing the next election. They are efficient in the use of their power — even with a very thin majority.
Democrats of today know that government programs are almost never repealed.
So, as I have written before, they play the long game and push as many voters as possible to become dependent on government.
Republicans, on the other hand, demonstrate no such solidarity. That lack of solidarity is becoming increasing more clear the larger government grows.
There is a strong contingent of Republicans that is rather concerned about trillion deficits as far as the eye can see and a national debt over $33 trillion. They understand that that is (1) unsustainable, (2) is inflationary, and (3) causing poverty.
Other Republicans are more willing to do business as usual in Washington.
Those two sides were at a stalemate before they settled on Rep. Mike Johnson, R-La.
The problem for Republicans, however, is that the future does not look bright for large majorities. If they plan to be in power in the future, they better learn to govern with a small majority in this divided era.
Tom Del Beccaro is an acclaimed author, speaker and national columnist as well as a radio and television commentator. He also appears on Newsmax TV. Read Tom Del Beccaro's Reports — More Here.