Since the barbaric Hamas blitz on Israeli populations in the Western Negev, on Oct. 7, 2023, decision makers and strategists in Israel, the Arab world, the U.S. — and the free world generally — have been working on finding solutions to: the Hamas threat, the future of Gaza, the peace process, a new equation to end this war, and perhaps the entire Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
However, there are several stakeholders with significantly different and opposing goals and interests.
Israel wants to end the jihadi threat on its southern front, in this regard it has the full support of the U.S. Congress, but not that of the Biden administraiton.
The Islamic Republic and its six Islamist militias stretching from Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, to the Houthis in Yemen, refuses the dismantlement of the "Islamic Resistance" and want to wage war against the Jewish state — until it disappears.
Arab Coalition and Abraham Accords partners, notably Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Jordan, are actually not friendly with Hamas, its parents the Muslim Brotherhood, and the Iran regime.
But . . . their governments fear this Tehran-led axis of terror, especially since the Biden administration has shown resistance to taking action against the regime, and tend to pressure its own allies to not confront the Islamic Republic.
Washington D.C. itself is divided, between the Biden administration (still committed to the Iran Nuclear Deal - JCPOA -) and a large majority in Congress: which in quite bipartisan terms on this matter, is deeply opposed to the Biden — de facto Obama — policy on Iran, and quite supportive of Israel and the Iranian opposition.
The administration, pushed by the "Iran lobby," has one top priority, that is to protect the "deal" with Tehran, a transaction which yielded to Iran's regime close to 150 billion dollars (since July 14, 2015), when Team Obama signed the JCPOA (Join Comprehensive Plan of Action).
Brokers may have earned billions of dollars and intend to protect their dividends, hence the stubbornness of the White House and its advisers to protect the Iran militias (including Hamas is self explanatory): this administration will not support Israel in any completion of the mission to end Hamas, and it won’t allow any Arab understanding with the Israelis to cover for such operation.
Hence Washington has adopted the position of "priority to a ceasefire" above all other scenarios, and thus is applying all pressures to deny the fall of Gaza into the hands of the Israelis.
But is there a plan B that can break the deadlock?
Yes, there is one.
The four years of the Trump administration achieved many strategic goals, before its successor deconstructed a few of them.
In 2017, Trump co-launched the Arab Coalition in in Riadh.
The following year, the administration withdrew from the JCPOA.
This action actually weakened the Tehran regime financially.
Then Washington designated the Sepah Pasdaran, IRGC (or Iran Revlutionary Guard Corps), as a terror entity.
Last but not least, during the summer of 2020, the historic Abraham Accords were signed at the White House.
These instruments still exist but the sitting administration is not willing to put them to work, because of the Iran Nuclear Deal.
Congress is protecting the accords until a change of administration occurs.
Hence a plan B would summarize as follows:
Based on the common interest of the Abraham Accords and the self-survival of the Arab Coalition, a secret agreement would have to be reached between moderate Arab governments and Israel, to allow the latter to evacuate Hamas from Rafah, dismantle the jihad organization across Gaza and establish a full control of the borders with Egypt.
The Arab Coalition governments will not endorse the Israeli offensives in public, and may be still calling for a ceasefire.
The bloc of Arab moderates cannot sustain the terror counter strikes on them by the Islamic Republic and its axis. But Arab moderates would have to move immediately following the completion of the operation to cosponsor the transitional management of the district.
Israel will have to accept two conditions immediately: the organization of a police force across the Gaza region, recruited among anti-jihad activists, and coordinating with the IDF.
And Israel with have to work with the Arab Coalition and the Abraham Accords members to set up a local authority in the area, under interim Israeli control.
The Arab coalition and the Abraham Accords countries would need to move immediately to fund the new vetted Gaza authority and establish a plan to "de-jihadize" those areas ruled by Hamas.
They would also need to take control of schools and set up an educational curriculum for jihadi deradicalization.
It would addtionally be encumbent upon the coalition to develop a financial and economic agenda for reconstruction and modernization of Gaza.
The post-Hamas government of Gaza would recognize Israel and would be integrated into a related Abraham Agreement.
The United States under the Biden administration would be invited to support the de-Jihadization program and assist in the reconstruction campaign.
If America is not willing, the participation of the U.S. will take place under the next administration.
This plan would need to be fully backed by the U.S. Congress, with a bipartisan majority.
Dr. Walid Phares, is a Newsmax foreign policy analyst – beginning in April of 2022. Since 2009, he has served as co-secretary of the Transatlantic Parliamentary Group. He has also served as a foreign policy adviser to Donald Trump in 2016 and was a national security adviser (in 2011-2012) to then Presidential candidate Mitt Romney. Dr. Phares is a noted author, professor and Mideast expert, as well as a former Fox News and MSNBC contributor. He is currently the co-host of the Podcast "War and Freedom: Insight Talks" and the co-President of "Educate America Platform." Read Dr. Walid Phares' Reports — More Here.