Poland in Crosshairs
Poland has been in the news since Sept. 3, 2025 for two significant reasons.
First, U.S. President Donald Trump hosted the newly-elected Polish President Karol Nawrocki at the White House unusually warmly.
He received special treatment in many ways: the red carpet, F16 and F35 flyovers in honor of recently killed pilot Maj. Krakowian, a personification of U.S.-Polish cooperation, and an invitation to the G20 meeting next year.
Trump's most reassuring words were directed toward Poland and others on the eastern flank of NATO as Nawrocki consulted with leaders of other Central European, Baltic and Nordic countries.
Trump said that he really appreciated Poland and described the country as "a special" friend and key ally.
President Trump was also proud that he endorsed Nawrocki in his presidential campaign last spring and that he won.
He gave him a dedicated photo of the two of them used in the campaign.
Nawrocki gave Trump an original armband, used in the 1944 Warsaw Uprising by one of the most successful anti-Nazi Home Army units, to remind him of the valor of Polish soldiers in the struggle for freedom.
This was also the most important topic of the meeting: the assistance that the United States will provide Poland in case of the Russian attack, expressed as concern for planned reductions in U.S. military personnel in Europe.
In response, Trump stated emphatically that such reductions were never under consideration for Poland, and if the Polish government wishes their numbers can be increased.
This immediately became the main point of the agenda, reviving talk of the permanent military base, called Fort Trump, already considered in the first term.
Nawrocki joked that for the first time in its history, Poland is glad to have foreign troops on its soil. It's also a recipient of the most modern U.S. military equipment.
Additionally, views were exchanged on the situation in Ukraine.
The reason for it is that the Baltic Sea region is now considered the key to defense of NATO and Poland is the key regional leader of the eastern flank of NATO.
It's fully aligned with the U.S. on issues of the European defense.
Thus, the visit had a strategic significance, emphasized the strong presence of the U.S. and cooperation in key fields.
Trump declared, "We will always stand with Poland."
The second point of the meeting was energy security.
Poland has the biggest coal deposits in Europe but is deprived of their use by the European Union Green New Deal.
It also liberated itself from the Russian gas deliveries many years ago by opposing Nordstream 2. As an alternative, it is buying U.S. LNG, and planning the construction of small nuclear power plants, pioneered by Westinghouse.
The third initiative is the general strengthening of the eastern flank of NATO by support of the so-called Three Seas Initiative. Trump spoke at its first convention in 2017 in Warsaw.
This is an effort to overcome the Soviet imperialist legacy. All infrastructure, all connections extend from Moscow to the east and west.
There are hardly any connections north-south.
Thus, the Three Seas Initiative is designed to build roads, railroads, pipelines, etc. between Central European countries from Estonia to Croatia, and facilitate their cooperation and defense. The US supports the effort.
On Sept. 10, exactly one week after this inspiring event, Poland was targeted by a swarm of Russian Shaheed drones flying into its airspace at night.
The attack is assumed to be intentional because: it involved at least 21 drones, not one or two as previously; many penetrated deep into the country as far as the Baltic coast and south of Warsaw; many came from Belarus, not Ukraine, which actually warned Polish authorities of the coming attack; some of them used Polish SIM cards for navigation; the attack lasted all night from about midnight to 6:30am.
The result was that three were determined to be armed with bombs and shot down, others fell in the countryside, causing damage to buildings but no deaths.
This was the first time that NATO planes shot down Russian drones over NATO territory.
The assumed purpose of this attack was the testing of NATO military and political response, political intimidation, and promotion of discord among allies.
The most significant aspect was the visible escalation of Russian activities in Poland.
This is on top of the previous hybrid warfare actions, arson, sabotage, cyberattacks, disinformation, and cutting of undersea cables.
In response, Poland called a meeting of the NATO Consultative Council under Article 4 to discuss new threats.
NATO members offered Poland new equipment for bolstering its air defense capabilities, while Ukraine offered to share its drone warning and combat systems.
NATO offered a new assistance program called Eastern Sentry. Its chief aim was to increase NATO air patrols on the eastern flank, to integrate air and ground-based air defense and to promote the exchange of information between countries.
At present, the program is aimed at Poland but in the future, it will also cover other countries. There is also talk about extending this program to Western Ukraine to stop violations of NATO borders before they happen.
The European Union offered a program, called SAFE (Security Action for Europe) with an E40 billion credit for defense purchases in Europe. The government is already shopping for a modernized drone defense system.
Further, on Sept. 12, Russia and Belarus started their major ZAPAD military exercises where they will practice attacking Poland at the so-called Suwalki Gap toward the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.
The border is closed, and all systems are on alert to make sure that these exercises do not turn into actual invasion as happened sometimes in the past.
The United States is still considering its response.
Dr. Lucja Swiatkowski Cannon is a senior research fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C. She was a strategist, policy adviser and project manager on democratic and economic reforms in Eastern Europe, the Baltics, and Central, South and Southeast Asia for Deloitte & Touche Emerging Markets, Coopers & Lybrand, and others. She has been a scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Dr. Cannon received a B.A., M.Phil. and Ph.D. from Columbia University where she was an International Fellow and IREX Scholar at Warsaw University, and the London School of Economics. Read more of Dr. Swiatkowski Cannon's reports — Here.
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