(Editor’s Note: The following opinion column does not constitute an endorsement of any political party or candidate, on the part of Newsmax.)
Tonight's presidential debate between Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris has a chance to clarify some of the most important issues facing the United States.
One of these key issues is the war in Ukraine. There is considerable ambiguity about its beginning and Putin’s threats and political maneuvers that proceeded it. Understanding what led to its outbreak and conduct would help devise a strategy to end it.
The candidates should answer a few questions to clarify significant issues affecting the settlement of the war.
First: In October 2016, Vladimir Putin issued an ultimatum to the next U.S. president, even before it was known whether Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton would be elected.
Among the key demands was a request to roll back NATO infrastructure and reduce NATO personnel to the September 2000 levels. Other demands included an elimination of various sanctions and compensation for them as well as threats to end the disarmament program.
When Trump was inaugurated as president, he defied these demands and embarked on a policy of strengthening the eastern flank of NATO. In a July 2017 Warsaw speech he announced major new commitments to Poland: more troops, the establishment of the new NATO command in Poznan, and the revival of the anti-missile defense program.
Further, he demonstrated his support for the Three Seas Initiative, a group of East European countries helping each other to overcome post-Soviet legacies. He also met with President Zelenskyy of Ukraine and for the first time promised him lethal aid, which was approved in December 2017.
He acted in contradiction to Putin’s demands yet was able to maintain good relations with him. How was the Democratic Party preparing to respond to Putin’s ultimatum of October 2016?
Second: Soon after Biden became president, Putin instituted a military buildup of his troops on Ukraine’s border in April 2021, which led to the Geneva Summit in June.
Relations rapidly deteriorated right after the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. This can be determined by a comparison of Putin’s statements on Ukraine from July and September 2021.
In October, Putin ordered another 100,000 troop buildup, and despite a video conference with Biden on December 7, did not withdraw his troops. Just the opposite: On December 17, he issued an insulting ultimatum, repeating his demand from 2016 to withdraw NATO infrastructure and personnel from Eastern Europe and that no other country be allowed to join NATO, including Ukraine.
Why did Biden only threaten weak economic sanctions against Russia in facing these outlandish demands? Why was there no deterrence? Why were arms not provided to Ukraine on the eve of the invasion in the face of Russian threats?
Third: When Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the United States proposed to evacuate President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian government to the West, inadvertantly making it easy for Putin to install his own Russian-dominated government, which was the chief goal of the invasion.
The United States continued to deny the provision of arms to Ukraine at the beginning of the invasion, expecting it to be defeated quickly.
It was the neighboring Eastern Europe, especially Poland, who supported Ukraine in the first weeks of the invasion. Polish President Duda was in Kyiv on the day of the invasion, which made him vulnerable to being captured by Russian troops.
In the first weeks of the war, Poland provided Ukraine 340 tanks,10 MIG planes, hundreds and thousands of armored vehicles, anti-aircraft launchers, guns and ammunition. The prime ministers of Slovenia, Czech Republic and Poland visited Kyiv in March to demonstrate their support for Ukraine.
When did the United States begin to provide serious military aid to Ukraine and why was it delayed? Why was aid paused again in the summer of 2022?
Fourth: The war has been at a stalemate for about a year, and Western deliveries of military equipment are irregular and not responsive to Ukraine’s defense needs. What is the Biden administration's strategy for victory or for a negotiated peace in Ukraine?
Dr. Lucja Swiatkowski Cannon is a senior research fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C. She was a strategist, policy adviser and project manager on democratic and economic reforms in Eastern Europe, the Baltics, and Central, South and Southeast Asia for Deloitte & Touche Emerging Markets, Coopers & Lybrand, and others. She has been an adjunct scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Dr. Cannon received a B.A., M.Phil. and Ph.D. from Columbia University where she was an International Fellow and IREX Scholar at Warsaw University, and the London School of Economics. Read more of Swiatkowski Cannon's reports — Here.