During the presidential campaign, Donald Trump presented himself as a peacemaker. Thus, his inauguration became the start of efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
However, Russia does not seem interested in a deal, and it is sticking to its maximalist demands that go far beyond Ukraine to recasting the whole global order in its favor. The current dilemma is how to bring it to the negotiation table on terms favoring the West.
The Biden administration believed that continuing the war in Ukraine was degrading the Russian army by killing large numbers of Russian recruits. It never absorbed the lesson of the Vietnam War that countries are willing to sacrifice large numbers of their citizens for a significant strategic goal.
Especially dictators like Russian President Vladimir Putin don't care about casualties at all, as long as they do not consist of children of allied political elites. And Ukraine is a great strategic prize.
As Zbigniew Brzezinski used to say, Russian control of Ukraine makes it a great empire in world politics. Its alignment with the West makes the West much more secure from the Russian threat.
To pressure Putin, President Trump proposed new massive economic sanctions on U.S. imports from Russia, but this amounts to only $2.9 billion — too insignificant to make any dent. However, allied Western sanctions on Russia are weak, and much more can be done in this area.
Unfortunately, sanctions worked on small and isolated Poland in the 1980s but are unlikely alone to bring Russia to its knees and to force Putin to the negotiating table.
President Trump made another proposal following the Reagan playbook. He appealed to Saudi Arabia to lower the price of crude oil.
This would result in lower earnings for Russia, which in turn would impact its war expenditures and make it unaffordable in the long run to proceed with the war. But will Ukraine be able to withstand Russian attacks in the long run?
There is a need to expand Western range of out-of-the-box points of pressure. One promising area is taking a hard look at China.
The Russia-China relationship is very tight and getting closer. It can be stated unequivocally that Russia would not be able to conduct this war without China’s economic support.
Though there are frictions, China is enabling Russia to carry on the war. They not only need each other economically but most significantly are closely united by their desire to remove the United States from the position of primacy in the global order.
So far, China has been careful not to provide military equipment to Russia, which would make it vulnerable to Western sanctions; but it is providing many dual-use technologies. Taking a close look at transactions with Russia might yield new insights into this process and points of interference.
In addition, as China officially does not provide military equipment, it allows it to officially maintain a stance of diplomatic neutrality in the war. Denting this illusion and providing evidence of material Chinese support might persuade many countries in the global South, where China wants to be a leader, to be more careful in doing business with China.
This might help to end the war in Ukraine as well as U.S. efforts to stand up to China.
Another promising area of confronting Putin's aggression is signaled by Russian direct hybrid warfare, such as recent attacks on underwater cables, attempts to put explosives on planes, or arson. So far, they did not elicit strong Western response except for the establishment of joint NATO patrols in the Baltic Sea to prevent further attacks.
It is time to consider now to actively defend or retaliate against such moves.
The United States must respond to Russian aggression actively and globally and engage allies fully to have a chance of a successful resolution of the Ukrainian conflict.
Dr. Lucja Swiatkowski Cannon is a senior research fellow at the Institute of World Politics in Washington, D.C. She was a strategist, policy adviser and project manager on democratic and economic reforms in Eastern Europe, the Baltics, and Central, South and Southeast Asia for Deloitte & Touche Emerging Markets, Coopers & Lybrand, and others. She has been an adjunct scholar at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Dr. Cannon received a B.A., M.Phil. and Ph.D. from Columbia University where she was an International Fellow and IREX Scholar at Warsaw University, and the London School of Economics. Read more of Swiatkowski Cannon's reports — Here.
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