Iran Is One Step Away from a Popular Uprising
The activation of the "snapback" mechanism is a major step toward disabling the hellish machine of war and slaughter in Iran and the region.
Its activation in the UN Security Council and the reinstatement of previous UN sanctions against the religious dictatorship would, in the current circumstances, represent a strategic blow: it could shut down the geostrategic engine of warmongering.
That's why thousands of members of the Iranian diaspora in the United States rallied on Sept. 23, and tens of thousands of Iranians in the European diaspora gathered in Brussels, Belgium on Sept. 6, demanding, among other things, that the snapback be triggered.
They believe that invoking the snapback can curb the regime's belligerence and bring an end to war and bloodshed.
Since the Iran-Iraq War in 1988, the Islamic Republic has consistently tried to hide unprecedented domestic repression behind engineered crises and cross-border conflicts, justifying internal repression by reference to external "crises."
Like any dictatorship, it pursued a strategy of manufacturing enemies with slogans such as "Death to Israel" and "Death to America," grounded on three pillars: developing a nuclear bomb, missile capabilities, and a network of proxy forces.
That strategy has now suffered a serious setback. The snapback pulls Khamenei out of the stalemate of "neither war nor peace" and forces him to choose between these paths:
- Continuing enrichment inside the country and even withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT) — an option some factions within the regime are loudly advocating.
- Abandoning domestic enrichment and, consequently, scaling back missile development and reducing logistical and financial support for proxy forces.
Whichever path the regime chooses will fan the flames of revolt at different speeds; as the nationwide protests of 2009, 2017, 2019, and 2022 showed, political and economic pressure can turn into social explosion.
If the regime takes the continuing enrichment path, the full restoration of the sanctions from 2006–2010 would deliver severe shocks to the fragile clerical economy.
At the same time, Iranian society — already on the brink after mass killings, routine executions, plunder, and systemic corruption — would likely see these shocks as the spark that ignites the barrel of public discontent.
If the regime chooses the abandoning domestic enrichment path — the option Khamenei himself calls "surrender" — the machinery of repression and mass killing would be stripped away at once and the foundations of the government would collapse.
For this reason, Khamenei prefers the first option: continuing the nuclear and missile programs to delay the immediate danger of being overthrown.
In 1988, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic, was forced to accept a ceasefire with Iraq — a decision he called "drinking from the poisoned chalice."
To shore up his rule afterward, he issued a sinister fatwa that led to the massacre of more than thirty thousand political prisoners.
By instilling terror, the regime temporarily secured its survival.
Today, however, the current supreme leader Ali Khamenei is far weaker than Khomeini was then and cannot carry out repression on the same scale; for that reason, he fears "surrender" and is unwilling to give up the nuclear project.
Khamenei’s Choice
Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, in a major speech broadcast on Sept. 23 — coinciding with large demonstrations by thousands of Iranians, called by the National Council of Resistance, in front of the United Nations building in New York — emphatically announced that he will not give up uranium enrichment.
He said, "My point is that, in the current situation, negotiating with the U.S. government, first, does not help our national interests; second, it brings us no benefit and will not avert any harm to us.”
Hollow Threats
The rejection of the resolution to extend the suspension of sanctions and the relative consensus between Europe and the United States to activate the snapback sent a clear message to the religious dictator: the game of buying time is over.
From now on the regime can neither present itself convincingly as a great victim nor buy time and legitimacy through endless negotiations.
In response to the return of UN sanctions, two approaches are visible within the ruling apparatus:
• One faction downplays the return of sanctions and emphasizes reliance on domestic capacities or closer ties with powers such as Russia and China.
• Another faction resorts to theatrical threats: closing the Strait of Hormuz, withdrawing from the NPT, or even conducting a nuclear test.
Although these statements are initially meant to bolster the regime’s internal ranks, in practice they reveal a leadership that can no longer coherently manage a crisis.
Outlook
With the snapback now activated, a historic opportunity for uprising and revolt has opened up for the Iranian people.
A society exhausted by poverty and inflation, deprived of freedom and witnessing the executions of its youth, is more ready than ever to seize its own destiny in the face of a livelihood crisis.
Hamid Enayat is based in Paris and is a noted expert on Iran. He has written extensively on issues pertinent to Iran and the Mideast region. Read Dr. Hamid Enyat's Reports — More Here.
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