In Iran, Public Trust In Iran's Ruling Establishment Is Collapsing
Iran is reaching a critical breaking point.
Over the past week alone, three young Iranians set themselves on fire in separate provinces — desperate acts that reveal not isolated tragedies, but a nation pushed to the edge. These cases are no longer "personal crises."
They are unmistakable political alarms.
Ahmad Baladi, a 20-year-old student in Khuzestan, burned himself alive after municipal agents destroyed his father’s street stall — the family's only source of income.
In Sanandaj, 34-year-old firefighter and father of two, Shaho Safari, self-immolated after four months without wages and unbearable economic pressure.
In Lorestan, transportation worker Kourosh Kheiri set himself on fire after being dismissed; he died a week later from severe burns.
Three self-immolations in one week signals a deeply suppressed anger which is pushing society toward eruption — a crisis that goes far beyond economics.
It reflects an irreversible collapse of public trust in Iran's ruling establishment.
A Governance Vacuum at the Heart of the State
Iran's ruling system now faces an extraordinary convergence of structural crises: runaway inflation, mass unemployment, deepening hunger, collapsing infrastructure, and sharply declining state revenues.
The cumulative effect has exposed the government’s inability to function at even the most basic level.
Former Iranian deputy foreign minister Mohsen Aminzadeh recently described the situation as "a form of governance vacuum."
A senior regional diplomat added, "The confusion inside Iran today is deeper than at any point in the past four decades."
In reality, the Islamic Republic is trapped in a cycle of paralysis and decline.
The regime can neither govern nor reform.
What remains is a political system caught in strategic deadlock — unable to formulate coherent solutions and increasingly reliant on repression as its only instrument of survival.
Nuclear and Missile Acceleration Amid Domestic Collapse
Despite the internal chaos, Tehran continues to accelerate its missile and nuclear programs — a strategy aimed at intimidation abroad and survival at home.
A Nov. 9 New York Times report, citing the International Crisis Group, reveals that Iran’s missile-production factories are operating around the clock. In a future conflict, Iran aims to launch at least 2,000 missiles — compared with the 500 it fired during the twelve-day war in June — to overwhelm Israel’s air defenses.
Meanwhile, satellite images analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and published in Le Monde show significant underground construction near Natanz, expanding nuclear activities deep beneath the mountains to evade airstrikes.
And while its own population faces hunger, water shortages, power outages, and collapsing public services, Tehran reportedly transferred roughly $1 billion to Hezbollah over the past year.
Repression at home is intensifying at the same time. October 2025 saw 285 executions — the highest monthly figure in years. In the first ten months of 2025, 1,471 people, including 45 women, were executed. This is not justice; it is systematic terror.
A Regime Split at the Top: A Deepening Power Struggle
Iran’s theocratic government is facing a growing internal rebellion. Since 2018, Iran has seen three nationwide uprisings and countless demonstrations chanting “Death to the dictator.” As nationwide unrest looms again, Iran’s political system is divided into two main blocs:
1. The Negotiation-Oriented Faction
Linked to former president Hassan Rouhani and former foreign minister Javad Zarif, supported by parts of the IRGC’s economic network.
They recommend making concessions on the nuclear and missile programs to avoid collapse.
2. The Hardline Core of Power
The ideological base loyal to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
This faction rejects negotiations, viewing any retreat as a "premature death sentence for the regime."
They insist on continuing nuclear enrichment, missile expansion, and regional escalation.
Inreality a system whose survival strategy depends on manufacturing external enemies cannot abandon its nuclear program.
This is why Khamenei refuses to retreat — even at the cost of national collapse.
The Iranian People’s Right to Self-Defense
The Islamic Republic’s power structure rests on three pillars:
—Execution and repression at home
—Regional warfare and terrorism
—Expansion of nuclear and missile capabilities
The recent 12-day war demonstrated a crucial truth: these policies will not end unless the existing power structure ends.
Iran’s prisons have effectively become execution sites. In GhezelHesar alone — one of the largest prisons in the Middle East — an estimated 1,500 inmates face imminent death sentences. When people are killed simply for participating in peaceful protests, they have the inherent right to defend themselves.
Now that several UN Security Council resolutions have been reactivated and Iran is once again designated under Chapter VII as a threat to international peace and security, the international community — especially the United States — must take a decisive stand.
Washington Must Recognize a Historic Opportunity
For decades, U.S. administrations have struggled to counter Iran’s aggression while seeking to avoid regional escalation. But today, the regime is weaker, more divided, and more internally vulnerable than at any time since 1979.
Supporting the Iranian people's right to resist tyranny, materialized in great partby the action of thousands of resistance units across the country, is not just morally justified — it is strategically essential.
A collapsing regime armed with nuclear ambitions is the worst possible outcome. Empowering the Iranian people and supporting their demand for freedom is the only sustainable path toward regional stability, U.S. security, and global peace.
Hamid Enayat (@h_enayat) is an expert on Iran and a writer based in Paris, where he has written frequently on Iranian and regional issues in the past 30 years. Read more of his reports --- here.
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