The first wave of attacks on Iran, along with the reported elimination of Ali Khamenei and several of the regime's top military and intelligence commanders, initially led some observers to predict the imminent collapse of the Iranian regime.
Yet an important question remains.
The real turning point in Iran will not come from the skies above the country, but from the millions of Iranians who have repeatedly risen against the regime and are determined to change it from within.
On March 12, Reuters reported — citing three sources familiar with U.S. intelligence assessments — that despite recent attacks by Israel and the United States, the Iranian government is not yet at risk of collapse and the country's leadership structure remains largely intact.
Recent uprisings — particularly the January uprising — demonstrated the determination of Iranians to change the country’s political system.
Despite the 12-day war with Israel and the actual conflict, the elimination of many of the regime’s key commanders, and the significant weakening of its power structure, the regime has not collapsed.
This is precisely what the Iranian Resistance has long argued: bombing and foreign military pressure alone cannot bring down this regime.
War: An Obstacle to a Popular Uprising
As President Trump himself has acknowledged, the war has effectively become an obstacle to a popular uprising.
When the entire country is under bombardment, it is unrealistic to expect people — focused on protecting their lives and families — to take to the streets in large numbers.
Militarization of the Cities
At the same time, the regime has intensified the militarization of urban areas.
According to the Fars News Agency, the number of security patrols in the streets has tripled.
In addition to police forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), paramilitary groups such as the Fatemiyoun brigades (Afghan fighters affiliated with the IRGC) and the Zeynabiyoun brigades (Pakistani fighters working for the regime) have also been deployed to reinforce the regime’s apparatus of repression.
These groups patrol the streets at night, creating an atmosphere of intimidation aimed at preventing any form of social protest.
In this context, Ahmad-Reza Radan, the commander of Iran's police forces, openly declared:
"If someone takes to the streets at the behest of the enemy, we will not see them as protesters. We will see them as enemies, and we will treat them accordingly."
He added:
"All our forces have their fingers on the trigger, ready to defend the revolution and support the people and the homeland."
Similarly, Brigadier General Salar Abnoush, a member of the regime’s parliamentary security committee, stated on March 5 that anyone who takes to the streets to protest would be shot.
An Organized Force Inside the Country
Alongside widespread social discontent, an organized force is also active inside Iran: the Resistance Units established by the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) since 2016.
This network, which has taken root across many provinces, is widely seen as an operational force for change within the country. In the past year alone, thousands of anti-repression actions have reportedly been carried out by this network.
The Resistance Units also played a significant role in organizing and expanding nationwide protests, particularly during the January uprising.
During that uprising, more than 2,000 members of the Resistance Units were reported missing, and it remains unclear how many were arrested or killed.
More than two months have passed, and despite ongoing efforts, no reliable information has emerged about their fate.
A Turning Point
One of the recent turning points was the attack carried out on Feb. 23 by units of the Liberation Army against the residence of Ali Khamenei — before its total destruction under heavy bombing on Feb 28.
Of the 250 fighters who participated in the operation, 82 were killed or arrested.
Their names and identities have been published by the MEK and submitted to international human rights organizations.
Meanwhile, the regime has made every effort to conceal the incident.
A Regime Without a Way Out
The appointment of Khamenei's son as the new Supreme Leader highlights the regime’s deep political deadlock. A system that claims to be a "republic" has effectively turned into a hereditary power structure.
After decades spent alongside his father overseeing internal repression and exporting crises across the region, he used his first message to call for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the opening of new fronts of war.
Yet a regime that had already reached the end of its life cycle under Ali Khamenei will not be saved by replacing him with a weaker version of the same figure.
The elevation of Khamenei's son to the position of supreme leader is, in reality, an admission that the regime has no viable path to survival.
Hamid Enayat (@h_enayat) is an expert on Iran, and a writer based in Paris. He has written frequently on Iranian and regional issues in the past 30 years. Read more of Hamid Enayat Insider articles — Click Here Now.
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