An Unprecedented Situation Is Unfolding in Iran
An unprecedented situation is currently unfolding in Iran.
In just the second month of the Iranian calendar year (April 21 to May 21), at least 158 people have been executed.
This means, on average, one execution every 4.5 hours.
This is obviously a horrifying figure and, going back to recent decades, it's unmatched.
Some analysts in Tehran are comparing this wave of executions to the mass killings of political prisoners in the summer of 1988.
At that time, Ayatollah Khomeini, following his acceptance of a ceasefire with Iraq after eight years of war — something he famously called "drinking the chalice of poison" — launched a series of widespread executions, particularly targeting members of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI), the backbone of the Iranian resistance.
Khomeini, who constantly repeated that 'we will fight to the last house in Tehran,' was ultimately forced to back down from his position.
Now, many observers believe the regime finds itself in a similarly desperate situation —only this time, it is far weaker and burdened with both domestic hatred and global condemnation.
Rising Military Threats
As nuclear negotiations reach a deadlock, Israel has threatened military action against the Iranian regime, which continues to reject the demand for "zero enrichment" inside the country.
Tehran’s anxiety is not merely about the destruction of nuclear facilities; what truly terrifies the regime’s leaders is the prospect that such a strike could ignite a nationwide uprising.
In response to these threats, Iran’s foreign minister swiftly sent a letter to the United Nations, holding the United States responsible for any potential consequences.
For the regime, stepping back from its nuclear ambitions is not just a political concession — such a retreat could lead to the collapse of the regime’s "core power structure" — a structure that for decades has been built upon slogans like "Death to America" and "Death to Israel," and has sustained itself through repression and executions.
No More Appeasement
Unlike in 2015 — when a policy of Western appeasement led to the signing of the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) — the current conditions have dramatically shifted.
The regime can no longer leverage threats and delay tactics to extract concessions.
Today, it is operating from a position of profound weakness.
Hardline Positions on Iran’s Nuclear Program
Steve Witkoff, the U.S. representative in the negotiations, has stated that even uranium enrichment at the level of one percent on Iranian soil is unacceptable.
This firm stance has been echoed by European countries, which have threatened to trigger the so-called snapback mechanism — an action that would lead to the reimposition of all United Nations sanctions on Iran.
In response to this mounting pressure, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivered an ambiguous statement, saying, "Negotiations will not yield results . . . I don’t know what will happen.” Analysts have interpreted this as a sign of growing confusion and instability within the regime.
Activating the Snapback Mechanism
The semi-official newspaper Farhikhtegan, which is close to Iran’s ruling establishment, reported on a tense meeting held in Istanbul between Iranian representatives and the three main European countries.
During this meeting, the European side adopted a firm position — not only reiterating the threat to activate the snapback mechanism, but also advocating for the inclusion of the new "Snapback Plus" clause.
This provision would enable the reinstatement of sanctions without requiring consensus or alignment with the United States.
These escalating instruments of pressure could place the regime in an unprecedented bind— especially if they coincide with growing domestic unrest.
The snapback mechanism itself is a highly effective tool, and if implemented, could push the Iranian regime into an unimaginable corner.
Mounting Domestic Crises Amid Foreign Pressure
Alongside mounting external pressure, the Islamic Republic is facing a cascade of internal crises. The water shortage has reached such an alarming level that water reserves behind some dams have dropped drastically — so much so that in some areas, dry reservoir beds have become makeshift motocross tracks.
Frequent power outages, even in hospitals, schools, and factories, have disrupted daily life across the country.
The severe collapse of the national currency, rampant double-digit inflation, and widespread poverty affecting over 80% of the population have hollowed out Iran’s economic structure from within.
In this atmosphere, labor strikes are on the rise. Truck drivers, bakers, and workers from various sectors have launched protests.
The state-run newspaper Jahan-e Sanat has warned that power cuts in industrial zones have sparked widespread dissatisfaction, adding that in some areas, "the smell of violent unrest is in the air."
According to two French researchers, authors of a recently published book on the October War, "overthrowing the mullahs' regime is no longer a fanciful option."
According to them, since 80% of the population desires regime change, "it would take very little for a popular uprising to erupt."
This accumulation of domestic turmoil, in parallel with intensifying international tensions, signals a possible turning point in the modern history of Iran — and perhaps the broader Mideast.
It seems the region, and Iran in particular, is on the brink of a major transformation.
Hamid Enayat is based in Paris and is a noted expert on Iran. He has written extensively on issues pertinent to Iran and the Mideast region. Read Dr. Hamid Enyat's Reports — More Here.
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