A week after a Cygnal poll conducted for the National Republican Congressional Committee showed GOP challenger Nick Begich actually leading Rep. Mary Peltola, D-Alaska, Republicans in Alaska are increasingly sure they will flip the seat.
"The Republicans are rallying behind Nick Begich," former GOP Lt. Gov. Mead Treadwell told Newsmax.
"He's worked hard and has had great support since the [state Republican] convention this spring."
Peltola became a national figure just two years ago following her surprise election.
Treadwell and other Republicans agree Begich, a businessman and namesake-grandson of the Democrat congressman who vanished in a flight in Alaska in 1972, might actually win a majority of the votes.
If he does, it will block the need for the ranked-choice voting to kick in with a special run-off.
According to the Cygnal survey, Begich leads Peltola by 49.1%-44.5% among likely voters.
Should he not win an outright majority, the ballots listing him as the second choice of voters would be counted and Begich would still win (52.1%-47.9%), Cygnal's polling showed.
Alaska's ranked-choice voting system was enacted by a wafer-thin margin in a 2020 initiative and was no doubt a pivotal factor in centrist Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, winning in 2022 over a conservative challenger.
There is presently an initiative on the November ballot to repeal ranked-choice voting and return to general elections with nominations decided by individual parties.
Most Alaska Republicans endorse the repeal, as has former President Donald Trump — who branded the current system "ranked-crap voting."
"It will be interesting to see whether ranked-choice voting makes a difference," Treadwell told us.
When she won a special election in 2022 for the seat held for nearly half-a-century by the late Rep. Don Young, R-Alaska, Peltola became a national Democrat heroine for thwarting the comeback of former Republican Gov. Sarah Palin.
Peltola is the first Alaskan native to serve in Congress.
Her national reputation notwithstanding, she is now clearly in the fight of her political life and the GOP's Begich might soon end it.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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