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Tags: china | taiwan | pete hegseth | stimson center | invasion

Experts: China Won't Invade Taiwan in Near Future

By    |   Wednesday, 09 July 2025 05:44 PM EDT

Defense experts at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based foreign affairs think tank, discussed the unlikelihood of an invasion of Taiwan last Thursday.

China is "rehearsing for the real deal," an invasion of Taiwan, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned at the 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's premier defense summit.

Contrary to the alarmism about a possible Chinese assault on Taiwan voiced by many military leaders, including Hegseth, experts at the Stimson Center argued that such an invasion is highly unlikely.

While China's commitment to reunification with Taiwan is unquestionable — asserted by Chinese leaders from Mao Zedong in the last century to the current president, Xi Jinping — MacKenna Rawlins, a defense strategy expert at the Stimson Center, challenged the conventional assumption that "a large-scale amphibious invasion [happens] anytime soon."

China has long had a commitment to defensive measures rather than engaging in physical offensive operations.

Manipulating Taiwan to force the island democracy to succumb to the Xi regime would be Beijing's ideal strategy, said military analyst James Siebens. 

He went on to say that coercion through deterrence is the most realistic tactic that China could employ to overtake Taiwan. Deterrence could include cyberattacks, sanctions, or blockades.

A military invasion poses significant risks for China. The threat of nuclear war increases as several nuclear-armed countries support maintaining Taiwan's independence.

In addition, China's one-child policy, in place since 1980, has left the current regime with too few prime-age soldiers to sustain a large ground force, according to a study by the U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Engaging could result in significant population losses, further eroding China's demographics in a costly and unjustifiable way.

China's economy would struggle to support an invasion. As an export-dependent nation, China's ability to export goods would not only be affected by war but would also face the risk of broad trade sanctions from multiple countries.

If China chooses to overlook these risks, Taiwan's geography is a challenge. An amphibious invasion in Taiwan may seem like a mere 81 miles from one coast to another, but population density and topographic maps reveal many obstacles.

Taiwan's west coast has a population density comparable to that of New York City, meaning any invasion would involve immediate military engagement with civilians. Dense urban structures and crowded coastal cities create a landscape nearly impassable for tanks and major operations.

Taiwan's east coast is largely mountainous, with only narrow stretches of farmland along the shore. Just beyond these lie the tallest mountains in East Asia.

"For an attacker, this is a very dangerous environment," explained military doctrine expert Dan Grazier, a retired Marine officer. "For a defender, this is about the best ground one could possibly imagine."

China certainly views Taiwan as its own and is likely to seek international recognition of that claim. A military invasion, however, poses too many obstacles that are "if not insurmountable, highly difficult challenges for military planners and would present daunting prospects," Siebens concluded.

Alannah Peters is a rising senior at the University of Florida and a summer intern with Mr. Gizzi.

John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.

© 2025 Newsmax. All rights reserved.


John-Gizzi
Defense experts at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based foreign affairs think tank, discussed the unlikelihood of an invasion of Taiwan last Thursday.
china, taiwan, pete hegseth, stimson center, invasion
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2025-44-09
Wednesday, 09 July 2025 05:44 PM
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