What Results From Tennessee-7 Race Really Mean

"Republicans won Tuesday's special election in Tennessee," wrote Politico on the morning after Matt Van Epps' closer-than-normal retention of the district of former Republican Rep. Mark Green. "But instead of celebrating, many are dreading what it means about the midterms."

Actually, the results from Tennessee-7 — Van Epps defeated liberal Democrat state Rep. Aftyn Behn 54% to 45% in a district President Donald Trump carried — are not unusual for a president's party during his first year in the White House.

Freed of competing elections elsewhere in the nation and thus able to focus its resources on one contest, the opposition party to the president historically does very well in House special elections during a president's first year.

Former Presidents Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, and George H.W. Bush all oversaw their parties lose a string of special elections — each winning only one such contest out of several — during their first years in office.

The race in Tennessee-7 was similar to others in the history of first-year House special contests.

"With Trump not on the ballot, some of his voters were staying home," a former GOP congressman from the Volunteer State told Newsmax. "So Van Epps' messaging shifted from positive 'Van Epps is a war hero' type messaging to negative: 'Aftyn Behn is a Nashville-hating, far-left-wing nutcase who must be stopped' type messaging to scare the Trump voters to the polls."

The same former congressman added that "this was the hunting season, so many Trump voters were away and more interested in 'Mr. Buck.' But rural county voters, who hadn't voted in large numbers in early voting, showed up on Election Day, in part because of Van Epps' last-minute messaging."

Both Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., clearly worried about a pre-election Emerson Poll showing a near-tie in the race, pulled out all the proverbial stops for Van Epps. The president fanned the flames, posting on Truth Social that Behn "hates Christianity, will take away your guns, wants Open Borders, Transgender for everybody, men in women's sports, and openly disdains Country music. She said all of these things precisely, and without question — IT'S ON TAPE! Do not take this Race for granted."

Johnson spent Monday traveling around the district with Van Epps, including emceeing a major rally and conducting interviews.

"Candidates matter," former state GOP Chairman Chip Saltsman told Newsmax. "Democrats nominated a liberal activist. Republicans nominated a veteran who has served his country, so Republicans won. Special elections are always difficult, but, end of day, you win or lose."

As for any long-term impact Tennessee-7 may have on national politics, Saltsman said: "No one remembers the score of the Super Bowl. They just know who are the Super Bowl champs, and oftentimes, can't remember who they beat."

John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.