House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., remains a strong favorite to win reelection as the new Congress convenes Jan. 3 – and any effort to remove him would be disastrous for the Republicans and President-elect Donald Trump's agenda.
As I write this, the GOP holds a wafer-thin majority of two – with 217 Republicans to 215 Democrats in the House.
House Republicans will most assuredly win all three vacancies for congressmen leaving their seats, but that will take months to happen.
Right now some Republicans – unhappy with Johnson for one reason or another – run the risk of turning over the chamber to the Democrats if the speaker fails to win a majority in the upcoming floor vote.
One House Republican, Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., has said flatly he will not vote for Johnson.
At least five other lawmakers – Reps. Andy Biggs, R-Ariz.; Victoria Spartz, R-Ind.; Troy Nehls, R-Texas; Tim Burchett, R-Tenn.; and Josh Brecheen, R-Okla. — have made it clear they are undecided on Johnson.
"Playing with fire" is how sophomore Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., characterized the threat of some of his colleagues not supporting Johnson for speaker.
He is right.
Failing to elect a speaker by Jan. 6 would spell major embarrassment for both President-elect Trump and his party.
Without a speaker, the House would be barred from officially certifying the results of the 2024 election.
Trump's victory as well as J.D. Vance's as vice president would remain in limbo until a speaker is chosen.
"Without a speaker, the House of Representatives cannot do any work, including certifying President-elect Donald Trump's landslide win to be our next president," Rep. Chuck Fleischmann, R-Tenn., told Newsmax on Sunday night.
"With only the slimmest of majorities, Speaker Johnson has kept Republicans together to pass conservative bills that Americans want and hold the Biden administration accountable."
What firebrands like Massie and company miss is the GOP caucus in the House includes 30-40 moderate House Republicans – many of whom come from states like New York, California, and other blue states.
Though they generally support Trump, they are not 100% MAGA.
If Massie succeeds in overthrowing Trump, these moderate Republicans will not support a speaker who will be more conservative than Johnson.
One even told me privately he could see a scenario where the House Democrats might win the support of a handful of Republicans to give Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., the speakership.
Such a scenario is completely avoidable.
Johnson has been a solid conservative and has done a good job under difficult circumstances – with the Senate and White House have been controlled by the Democrats.
But that should end come January and Johnson will be more enabled with a Republican Senate and White House.
Fleischmann believes Johnson will flourish in the new Congress.
He urged "all my conservative colleagues to rally around Speaker Johnson so he can continue to lead the House so we can get to work passing President Trump's America First Agenda."
Another important thing to remember: A tiny number of House Republicans led by Massie risk alienating a key constituency of the GOP – evangelical Christians.
These "values voters" adore Johnson and see him as a key ally of Trump and the MAGA agenda.
These value voters just played a crucial role in electing Trump.
Rev. Franklin Graham, for example, recently appeared with Johnson on Newsmax.
Graham later wrote on Facebook the speaker "has a hard job and not everyone is going to like every decision he makes.
"There are some people in Washington who just want to eat his lunch.
"He's trying to do the best job he can for our country. I like this guy — we need to pray for him."
It is not just evangelicals that see Johnson as part of the solution.
Grover Norquist of Americans for Tax Reform agrees Johnson is best for Trump and his agenda.
"Speaker Johnson has shown he can unite the modern Republican party behind Trump values and deliver 218 votes for the American people who just entrusted Donald Trump with the presidency," Norquist told Newsmax.
Norquist says there is simply "no alternative" to Johnson.
Over decades that I have covered Washington, Johnson is one of the most effective House speakers I have seen.
He almost singlehandedly has thwarted the Democrat juggernaut with their control of the Senate, White House, and the big media.
Republicans failing to support Johnson at this critical moment risks not only control of the House – but Trump's agenda, one so important for our country.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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