In what has already become a headline-grabbing contest, Republicans from Detroit to Washington, D.C., are quietly celebrating a newly released survey showing Rep. John James pulling ahead in the three-way race to succeed term-limited Gretchen Whitmer as Michigan governor in 2026.
According to the latest poll from EPIC‑MRA, James — a rising conservative star in the U.S. House — picked up 34% of the vote, narrowly edging out Democrat front-runner Jocelyn Benson, Michigan's secretary of State, at 33%.
The independent bid by Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan checks in at 20%.
For Republicans, the result is encouraging: James, one of just a handful of Black Republicans in Congress, has twice before run statewide — narrowly losing U.S. Senate bids in 2018 and 2020 — and now appears to be gaining real momentum.
His standing as the presumed favorite in the August 2026 GOP primary is bolstered by the poll's head-to-head numbers.
"The same poll taken 6 to 7 months ago would have shown something similar, although I would think Duggan might be doing a little better now," said veteran Michigan watcher Bill Ballenger, editor of the Ballenger Report.
The mayor's third-place showing has raised eyebrows among Democrats who believed his independent candidacy might cause more disruption.
Duggan's decision to bypass the Democrat primary and launch an independent run — backed in part by Detroit business elites — was widely seen as a potential game-changer.
But so far, the numbers suggest his bid may instead be carving out a limited lane rather than reshaping the field.
On the Democrat side, the narrow deficit for Benson raises warning flags in Lansing.
As current secretary of State and a polished campaigner, she was expected to run strongly, but the poll's margin places her effectively tied with James, with Duggan lurking on the fringes.
These results come at a pivotal moment. Whitmer, who will leave office after two terms, leaves an open seat in a state that has become a national battleground.
Michigan's next governor will not only manage Lansing's state government but will help determine whether the state tilts red, blue, or remains in play in future federal contests.
For Republicans, James' ascension signals that the party may coalesce early behind a single figure who can raise national money, tap into Trump-era conservative enthusiasm, and turn the once‐blue state's margins in their favor.
For Democrats, the survey suggests that even their leading candidate will need large turnout, disciplined messaging, and a sharper ground game to fend off a red-tilting environment.
And for Duggan, the caution lights may be blinking. An independent candidacy historically faces steep odds in Michigan, and while his support is substantial for a non-major-party entry, it may be enough only to split the electorate rather than secure victory.
As the campaign intensifies, key questions loom: Can James hold and expand his lead through the GOP primary?
Will Benson tighten her grip on the Democratic base and rally independents? And will Duggan's insurgent run either throw the race into chaos or quietly reshuffle the two-party order?
One thing is clear: This governor's race, once viewed as a routine white-knuckle Democrat hold, has become one of the most closely watched contests in the state and the nation.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
© 2025 Newsmax. All rights reserved.