No sooner had Sen. Tom Tillis, R-N.C., abandoned his bid for reelection on Sunday than speculation focused on a possible GOP nominee with a universally known name: Lara Trump, daughter-in-law of the president, Fox News commentator, and a native of Wilmington, North Carolina.
"Lara Trump would clear the field — no question about it!" veteran Raleigh policy analyst Marc Rotterman told Newsmax. "She is beloved here in North Carolina, and the base that loves her father would embrace her."
(Regarding Tillis, whose vote against Trump's Big Beautiful Bill on Saturday evening provoked the president's wrath and vow to campaign against him, Rotterman said: "The [conservative] base here views him as Mitt Romney without the hair gel!")
Although Lara Trump's roots in the Tarheel State are well-known, the wife of businessman Eric Trump and mother of two is now a resident of Florida. She floated her name for appointment to the Senate seat of Marco Rubio when he was named secretary of state late last year, but quickly removed herself from consideration.
While Rotterman and other seasoned observers of North Carolina agree a bid by Lara Trump would clear the GOP primary field, they also agree a decision by her to pass on the race would almost ensure a crowded and possibly divisive primary.
Even before Tillis announced his exit and a furious President Trump was calling for a primary opponent to the two-term incumbent, freshman Reps. Pat Harrigan and Tim Moore signaled their interest in the race. Harrigan is a former U.S. Army Special Forces officer, and Moore a former speaker of the North Carolina House.
Others reportedly eyeing the Republican Senate primary include former Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, who lost a bid for governor in 2020, and former Rep. Dan Bishop, who lost a close race for state attorney general last year and now holds a top job at the Office of Management and Budget.
Among Democrats, the most oft-mentioned hopeful is former two-term Gov. Roy Cooper. A centrist who is often likened to Bill Clinton, Cooper, 68, remains popular five months after leaving the governor's mansion and would have a solid shot at the seat. Should he choose not to run, state Attorney General Jeff Jackson—42, an Army National Guard Reserve officer, and also a centrist—would also make a strong Democratic candidate.
At the time he joined fellow Republican Sen. Rand Paul in casting one of two votes against the procedural motion regarding the BBB, Tillis was an active candidate whose campaign was run by onetime Trump operative Tony Fabrizio. Following his vote and Trump's resulting tirade against him, Tillis got out.
The message to Republicans seeking renomination and reelection next year might well be that he or she upsets the president at his or her own risk.
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