As Texas Democrats finalize their nominee for the U.S. Senate in Tuesday’s primary, President Donald Trump and national Republicans are watching closely.
Part of that is because if Democrat state Rep. James Talarico wins, Sen. John Cornyn may have the best shot at beating him.
At 36, Talarico, a former public school teacher and Presbyterian seminarian, has quickly become a leading Democrat contender.
Viewed by operatives in both parties as more centrist and less polarizing than some of his rivals, he is increasingly seen as the Democrat most capable of capitalizing on Republican divisions in a GOP primary between four-term incumbent Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
With Rep. Wesley Hunt running third in polls, no Republican is expected to win more than 50%, forcing a likely runoff in May between Paxton and Cornyn.
Talarico's brand of politics contrasts with that of Rep. Jasmine Crockett, whom he narrowly leads among likely Democrat primary voters, according to a recent Emerson College poll showing him ahead 52% to 47%.
While Crockett has built national name recognition through combative rhetoric, including controversial remarks comparing Immigration and Customs Enforcement actions to "slave patrols" and invoking "Nazi Germany," Talarico has cultivated a softer tone.
He frequently frames policy debates around faith, character, and affordability, often quoting the New Testament on the campaign trail.
He describes his message as "the politics of love" and avoids personal attacks on Trump, saying the president is "a child of God."
That posture has drawn attention from strategists who believe such restraint could appeal to suburban and independent voters wary of ideological extremes.
Talarico also touts his success flipping a historically Republican Texas House district through intensive canvassing and direct voter outreach.
The Democrat calculus is intertwined with Republican uncertainty.
Paxton, though popular with the GOP base and aligned closely with Trump, carries significant political baggage after years of legal controversies and his impeachment by the Texas House in 2023.
He was later acquitted in the state Senate.
Some Republican strategists privately question whether Paxton could win a statewide general election against a less polarizing Democrat like Talarico, particularly in suburban counties around Dallas, Houston, and Austin.
Polling in recent months has suggested a tighter-than-expected general election matchup if Paxton is the nominee, with some surveys showing him running weaker against a centrist Democrat than Cornyn does.
Cornyn, while facing restiveness from the GOP base over issues such as gun legislation and Ukraine funding, has historically performed well statewide and maintains strong donor networks.
Those concerns have fueled speculation in Texas political circles that Trump, who has so far maintained leverage over the GOP primary electorate, could ultimately intervene to prevent what some Republicans fear would be a risky Paxton nomination if Democrats nominate Talarico.
Trump has backed Paxton in past battles but has refused to endorse him early in the primary, a sign he may have concerns, sources close to the White House say.
Trump could endorse Cornyn to consolidate Republican voters and avoid a Democrat pickup in a state that has not elected a Democrat U.S. senator since 1988.
Such a move would reshape the Republican primary and signal that Trump and the GOP are concerned about losing the Senate in the midterms.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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