Inflation is back and heading in the wrong direction.
After months of progress, new data shows prices creeping higher, complicating efforts to stimulate the economy. At the same time, tariffs and a weaker dollar are adding pressure. This combination could make it harder for the Fed to cut rates and for Americans to protect their retirement savings.
That’s why now may be the right time to understand how physical gold can help shield your portfolio from rising inflation and market volatility.
Inflation Moves Higher
The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, rose 2.3 percent in May compared to a year earlier. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, climbed even higher at 2.7 percent. Meanwhile, new data shows the Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped to 2.7 percent in June, up from 2.4 percent in May. Core CPI for June came in at 2.9 percent, slightly above May’s 2.8 percent.1
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic summed it up: "The headline number moved away from our target, not towards it ... We've seen the highest increase in prices that we've seen all year... The price pressures are real."2
Nearly half of goods are seeing price increases at an annualized pace of 5% or more. That's double what was seen in January. Sticky prices, which tend to stay elevated once they rise, also ticked up. Median and trimmed mean inflation indicators are both back above the Fed’s 3% upper bound, at levels not seen for decades.3
Some prices, like hotels, declined. But others, especially used cars and services, jumped. Every key measure shows the same story: inflation isn’t just stubborn, it’s accelerating.
The Tariff Effect
Tariffs are adding another layer of risk.
Core goods prices (excluding autos) rose 0.5% in June, the biggest increase since June 2022, driven largely by tariffs. Analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics warned that “only a quarter of the tariff costs has come through so far; expect even bigger price rises in July.”4
Deutsche Bank called tariffs a “pipeline” of future inflation. Santander’s Stephen Stanley noted that many businesses are finally being forced to adjust prices this summer after holding back for months.
For now, companies have tried to shield consumers by stocking inventory, cutting margins, and pressuring foreign suppliers. But that strategy has limits. JPMorgan estimates that if the latest tariffs are fully passed on, they could add about 0.4 percentage point to the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.5
Trump Wants Cuts, Fed Stalls
Tariff defenders, however, point out that they are protecting American businesses and yielding revenue. They argue that any inflationary impact is likely to be a one-time adjustment already being absorbed by the market.
Undeterred Trump posted:
"Consumer Prices LOW. Bring down the Fed Rate, NOW!!! Fed should cut Rates by 3 Points. Very Low Inflation. One Trillion Dollars a year would be saved!!!"6
For context, the U.S.' s 2.7% inflation rates is below many advanced economies. In the U.K., by comparison, inflation is 3.6%.
The Fed, however, is unlikely to cut rates at its July meeting, and is expected to hold its benchmark rate steady at 4.25–4.50%. Markets had priced in a 75% chance of a September cut. That’s now closer to 50-50.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has made clear he wants to see the full impact of tariffs before lowering rates. Governor Adriana Kugler said: “I see upward pressure on inflation from trade policies, and I expect additional price increases later in the year.”7
Why Gold Stands Out
The tug-of-war between Trump and the Fed, combined with rising inflation, is creating an uncertain investment environment.
Historically, gold has been one of the few assets to perform well in times like these; when inflation is rising, the dollar is weakening, and markets are volatile.
If the Fed stays hawkish to fight inflation, the dollar could strengthen and pressure gold prices. But even under 'higher for longer' rates, gold is still reaching record heights. But, if Trump’s push for aggressive rate cuts wins out, and inflation accelerates, gold would likely benefit as investors look for a hedge.
Looking at the market, stocks are rising. But the biggest movers remain concentrated in a handful of big tech names. Leaving them extremely vulnerable to corrections. And with inflation building and monetary policy uncertain, it makes sense to consider assets that have historically preserved wealth.
Physical gold has a long track record of holding value during periods of inflation, volatility, and political uncertainty. Especially when held in a tax-advantaged Gold IRA.
For Americans looking to protect their retirement savings, now may be the time to learn how gold can help safeguard your wealth from rising prices and unpredictable markets. Contact American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071.
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Max Baecker is the President of American Hartford Gold (AHG), the nation’s largest retailer of precious metals. He leads American Hartford Gold’s mission to help clients achieve long-term financial security with physical gold and silver.
Under his guidance, American Hartford Gold has delivered billions of dollars’ worth of precious metals to thousands of satisfied clients.
Max's dedication to upholding American Hartford Gold's industry-leading standards is reflected in its accolades. American Hartford Gold has made numerous high-ranking appearances on the prestigious Inc. 5000 List of America’s Fastest-Growing Private Companies. AHG holds an A+ Rating from the BBB and a 5-Star Rating on Trustpilot from thousands of American Hartford Gold reviews. American Hartford Gold is the only precious metals company trusted and recommended by Bill O’Reilly.
AHG offers investment-grade gold and silver coins and bars at competitive prices. Clients also benefit from its buy-back commitment with no back-end fees. To learn more, visit American Hartford Gold.
Notes:
1. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/may-2025-pce-inflation
2. https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-rate-cut-delay-intact-inflation-fears-override-trump-pressure-2025-07-18/
3. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2025-07-16/never-fully-beaten-inflation-is-coming-back-to-life
4. https://fortune.com/2025/07/16/stocks-sell-off-investors-trump-inflation-pipeline-fed-hold-off-interest-rate-cuts/
5. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-17/trump-tariffs-reach-us-consumers-with-inflation-expected-to-rise
6. https://fortune.com/2025/07/16/stocks-sell-off-investors-trump-inflation-pipeline-fed-hold-off-interest-rate-cuts/
7. https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-rate-cut-delay-intact-inflation-fears-override-trump-pressure-2025-07-18/
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