The warning signs are hard to ignore, a recession is growing more likely by the day. But with the right steps now, you can protect what matters most, or even come out ahead. One of the smartest moves? A Gold IRA.
Adam Posen, a former official at the Federal Reserve and current president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, recently put the odds of a stagflationary recession at 65%. That’s not a number to brush off. According to Posen, “We may get recession, we may not, but we are going to get inflation either way.”1
His warning comes as the economy continues to be battered by trade wars, tariffs, and a chaotic global environment. Even if the Trump administration strikes new trade deals, Posen says, the damage is done: tariffs are still in place, uncertainty is sky-high, and the ingredients for stagflation are already in the pot.
Let’s be clear, stagflation is no ordinary recession. It’s a brutal combination of high inflation and stagnant or negative growth, last seen in the late ’70s and early ’80s. Back then, it took years to climb out of the economic hole. Now, it could happen again.
The Impact on Retirement Accounts
If you’re nearing retirement, or already living off your nest egg, this is not just economic theory. It’s a direct threat to your financial stability.
We’ve already seen real-world consequences. According to a Bloomberg report, Chicago’s pension funds lost nearly $1 billion during a recent market rout triggered by tariff announcements. The California Public Employees' Retirement System (CalPERS) lost $15 billion in just two days after another round of executive orders shook the markets.2
Scott Chan, chief investment officer of the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, issued a stark warning: “I would say that potential risks here are unprecedented. They are world changing.”3
For those with time on their side, markets tend to recover. But if you’re in or near retirement, you don’t have the luxury of waiting years for a rebound. Every downturn has the potential to hit hard. That’s why many Americans are choosing to act now, before it’s too late.
What You Can Do to Prepare for a Recession
In uncertain times, protecting what you’ve earned is patriotic and practical. Experts say these five steps could help you build a financial stronghold before the next hit lands:
1. Pay Down Debt
Debt doesn’t go away when times get tough. It becomes a much heavier burden. As interest rates rise, credit card balances become increasingly expensive. Eliminating debt not only saves you money in interest but frees up credit for emergencies.
2. Optimize Your Cash Flow
Now is the time to get lean. Cut unnecessary expenses, defer big purchases, and avoid accumulating new debt. Don’t panic-sell underperforming investments, but don’t ignore red flags either.
3. Build an Emergency Fund
When income is uncertain, cash is king. Aim to save at least a year’s worth of living expenses. Keep this fund liquid. CDs and other locked-in instruments may look tempting, but they don't always keep pace with inflation.
4. Stock Up Now
Disruptions to global trade and domestic manufacturing are already creating shortages. Inflation only makes it worse. Consider stockpiling essential nonperishables, medicines, and personal items now before prices surge or shelves go bare.
5. Diversify Your Holdings
One of the worst things you can do in a downturn is to bet the farm on a single asset class. Stocks, real estate, and even bonds are all vulnerable right now. The 2008 crash proved that retirement funds overly reliant on equities can be devastated. Which brings us to one of the most important and often overlooked strategies:
Why Gold Makes Sense in a Recession
Gold doesn’t rely on Wall Street or Washington. It’s a time-tested asset people turn to when the system starts to shake. During market crashes, gold often does the opposite of stocks: it goes up.
In the 2007–2009 financial crisis, gold prices rose by 25% while the S&P 500 plummeted by over 50%. During the Great Recession, gold jumped another 12.8% in 2009, and an astonishing 50.6% in 2010.4
Here’s why:
• No Counterparty Risk
Physical gold doesn’t rely on the solvency of a bank, a government, or a company. Unlike stocks or even gold ETFs, it cannot go bankrupt. It simply exists and retains value when paper assets collapse.
• Hedge Against Inflation
Central banks typically respond to recession by lowering interest rates and increasing the money supply. That can devalue the dollar and fuel inflation. But gold’s limited supply makes it immune to currency dilution. It retains purchasing power while the value of your dollars shrinks.
• Liquidity and Universal Acceptance
Gold is globally recognized, easily tradable, and universally accepted. Whether you need fast cash or a long-term hedge, gold delivers both.
• Diversification That Works
Gold tends to move independently of stocks and bonds. Adding it to your portfolio lowers your overall risk and cushions the blow when markets tank.
• Peace of Mind
In uncertain times, physical gold is something you can hold in your hand. It's a tangible form of wealth that isn’t tied to digital statements, trading platforms, or global power struggles.
Conclusion
The signs are growing impossible to ignore. Economic volatility isn’t some distant threat anymore, it’s here. Markets are reacting with wild swings, and even the once-solid foundations of retirement accounts are showing cracks. Recession, or even stagflation, could be right around the corner. If you're nearing retirement, sticking with a 'wait and see' approach might be a gamble you can’t afford to take. The cost of inaction could be devastating.
Experts recommend taking action now. Pay down debt, improve your liquidity, and diversify your assets. And if you’re serious about protecting your future, consider gold, the one asset that stands the test of time. You can protect your retirement with a Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold. Call us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.
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Max Baecker is the President of American Hartford Gold (AHG), the nation’s largest retailer of precious metals. He leads American Hartford Gold’s mission to help clients achieve long-term financial security with physical gold and silver.
Under his guidance, American Hartford Gold has delivered billions of dollars’ worth of precious metals to thousands of satisfied clients.
Max's dedication to upholding American Hartford Gold's industry-leading standards is reflected in its accolades. American Hartford Gold has made numerous high-ranking appearances on the prestigious Inc. 5000 List of America’s Fastest-Growing Private Companies. AHG holds an A+ Rating from the BBB and a 5-Star Rating on Trustpilot from thousands of American Hartford Gold reviews. American Hartford Gold is the only precious metals company trusted and recommended by Bill O’Reilly.
AHG offers investment-grade gold and silver coins and bars at competitive prices. Clients also benefit from its buy-back commitment with no back-end fees. To learn more, visit American Hartford Gold.
Notes:
1. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-top-u-s-economist-puts-the-chance-of-a-stagflationary-recession-at-65-14cd6891
2. https://stocktonia.org/news/politics/2025/04/15/california-pension-funds-lost-billions-stock-market-selloff/
3. https://stocktonia.org/news/politics/2025/04/15/california-pension-funds-lost-billions-stock-market-selloff/
4. https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-2/pdf/gold-prices-during-and-after-the-great-recession.pdf
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