McLaughlin Poll: Trump Remains Strong, GOP Needs Stronger Response

The results of our latest national survey of 1,000 likely voters (±3.1% at a 95% confidence interval) reveal a mixed and increasingly challenging landscape for Republicans heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

While President Trump remains with strong approval, Democratic attacks are showing erosion in support among independents.

The surprising outcomes in this year’s odd-year November elections sharply shifted political betting markets: on Nov. 1st, Republicans and Democrats were essentially even in projected control of the House.

Today, the odds have swung dramatically — now giving Democrats a 73% chance of controlling both the House and Senate.

Our new national poll highlights several trends that should concern Republicans:

—Direction of the Country: Only 38% of voters believe the nation is headed in the right direction, while 56% say it is on the wrong track.

Among key groups, the pessimism is even more pronounced — 70% of independents and 66% of undecided congressional voters believe the country is on the wrong path.

Republicans must reestablish a clear, consistent message of optimism in contrast to what many perceive as Democratic and media-driven pessimism.

—Generic Congressional Ballot: For the first time since the 2024 election, Democrats now lead the generic congressional ballot, 45% to 44%.

Democrats hold advantages among independents (42%–26%), Hispanics (48%–36%), suburban voters (46%–43%), and women (50%–38%).

—Economic Perceptions: Voter views of the economy remain turbulent. While 49% say the U.S. is not in a recession, that figure is down from 58% in August.

Meanwhile, 44% now believe the economy is in recession — up from 36%.

Yet perceptions of momentum are slightly improved: 39% say the economy is getting better (up from 36%), while those saying it is getting worse declined from 58% to 54%. Voters need to feel economic improvement in their daily lives.

—​Inflation’s Lingering Impact: Inflation continues to weigh heavily. Seventy-seven percent of voters say they have been negatively affected, including 41% who say they are still struggling to make ends meet.

—Trump’s Tax Cuts: Most voters remain confused about President Trump’s "One Big Beautiful Bill" (OBBBA).

Only 42% view it as a tax cut, while 37% see it primarily as a spending bill. As a result, support is tepid: 46% support the tax cuts and 43% oppose them.

Among undecided congressional voters, opposition leads 42%–30%, and independents oppose them 50%–35%.

Voters need clearer communication about how Trump’s tax cuts would benefit them and grow the economy, especially in contrast to Democrats' plans to raise taxes.

Despite the challenges, several dynamics favor Republican prospects:

—Trump Job Approval: President Trump holds a net-positive job approval rating, 50%–46%, supported by majorities who favor his policies.

—Democratic Leadership Weakness: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., is deeply unpopular nationwide with only 31% viewing him favorably versus 44% unfavorably. Republicans must sharpen the contrast by consistently highlighting Democrats’ unpopular positions.

—Socialism vs. Capitalism: Even with increased name recognition for Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani — now at 32% favorable (up 8 points) and 35% unfavorable — American voters overwhelmingly prefer free-market capitalism (63%) over big-government socialism (17%).

Even Democrats favor free markets by a 49%–26% margin. The message is clear: Americans do not want big government.

Republicans must emphasize this contrast vigorously.

—Top Issues: Domestic economic concerns dominate, named by 41% of voters, including inflation (18%) and the economy more broadly (9%).

Security issues, as the border becomes more stable, are the top priority for 15% of voters.
Social issues are most important for 31% — notably Social Security/Medicare (13%) and healthcare (8%).

—Trump’s America First Message: Of voters, 64% say they may not agree with everything Donald Trump says, but they believe he is right about putting America and the American people first.

This view spans key demographics:​

—Independents: 56%

—Moderates: 56%

—Hispanics: 56%

—African Americans: 54%

—Women: 61%

Remarkably, even 34% of voters who currently disapprove of Trump believe he is right about America First.

Republicans must reclaim and sharpen this message across all issue contrasts with Democrats.

President Trump should bring America First back to center stage — outside Washington and at renewed rallies across the country.

President Trump won the national popular vote last November with more than 77 million votes — 50% of the total 156 million ballots cast.

That voter reservoir can deliver victory in the midterms:

—2018 Midterms: 118 million ballots cast; a House majority required approximately 59 million votes.

—2022 Midterms: 112 million ballots cast; a majority required about 56 million votes.

If Republicans need around 60 million votes in 2026 to retake the House, there are more than enough Trump voters to do it — but as of 2025, the 75 million Harris voters appear more energized.

That must change.

And there is time to change it.

(See also: www.McLaughlinonline.com)

John McLaughlin has worked professionally as a strategic consultant and pollster for over 40 years. Jim McLaughlin is a nationally recognized public opinion expert, strategic consultant and political strategist who has helped to elect a U.S. president, prime ministers, a Senate majority leader, and a speaker of the House. Read John and Jim McLaughlin's Reports — More Here.