Just hours after the official 2024 presidential election matchup was clinched by President Joe Biden and presumptive GOP nominee and former President Donald Trump. The Economist/YouGov released a poll Wednesday showing a remarkably close race — in fact, a statistical tie.
Trump (44%) leads Biden (42%) by 2 points, which is within the margin of error, in the nationwide poll of 1,559 U.S. adult citizens.
Historically, polls of registered or likely voters tend to tilt more to Trump than U.S. adults, which may or may not be inclined to vote, or eligible to vote, and tend to lean more toward Democrat candidates.
Trump is outperforming Republicans in the poll as Democrats lead Republicans by 1 point (43%-42%) in the generic congressional ballot.
While Trump holds that narrow lead even among U.S. adults, there is an overwhelming divide on who those polled said they believe will win: 45% said Trump will win, regardless of whom they support; just 33% said Biden will win.
Also, 63% said Biden is a "weak" leader, including a plurality of 45% who said he is "very weak." That data is flipped when Trump is considered, as a combined 59% said he is a strong leader.
Other headlining data points found in the poll:
- 63% said the country "is off on the wrong track."
- Trump backers by a 3-to-1 margin said their vote is based on a vote "for Trump" (73%) as opposed to merely against Biden (25%).
- Biden backers are very closely divided, as a near majority said their vote is not based on support for Biden but a vote against Trump.
- A plurality of U.S. adults (40%) said they are "upset" about Biden, compared to just 15% "enthusiastic."
- Trump has a larger total on "enthusiastic" at 28%.
- A plurality said Biden "doesn't care at all" (38%) about voters needs for people like them.
- A plurality of 41% said the economy is poor, while just 7% said the economy is strong.
- 50% said they see gas prices going higher in the next six months.
- Also, a plurality of 46% said the economy is getting worse, a plurality of 40% said their personal finances are worse than they were a year ago, and a 40% plurality said the U.S. is already in a recession.
- 41% see higher inflation before the November election, with 60% saying inflation impacts their personal finances "a lot."
YouGov polled 1,559 U.S. adult citizens March 10-12 for The Economist. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Eric Mack ✉
Eric Mack has been a writer and editor at Newsmax since 2016. He is a 1998 Syracuse University journalism graduate and a New York Press Association award-winning writer.
© 2024 Newsmax. All rights reserved.