A leading political scientist at Harvard University said Tuesday that talks between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Stockholm will not only lead to stabilizing the trade war between the nations but also lay the groundwork for a successful meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Li Chenggang, China's top trade official, reportedly said Tuesday the sides had "constructive" and "candid" discussions and agreed to keep tariffs at current levels — the U.S. taxing Chinese goods at 30% and China collecting 10% on U.S. products.
The sides in May agreed to a 90-day pause, set to expire Aug. 12, in which each imposed triple-digit tariffs on the other.
Trump also reportedly said Tuesday he is not seeking a summit with Xi but would visit China at Xi's invitation.
"Here's my prediction for what's to come: In what they may call a 'great rebalancing,' when Trump and Xi finally meet, they will announce advances not only on trade but on other issues, including major investments in energy and manufacturing, a serious Chinese crackdown on exports of fentanyl precursors, a resolution of the TikTok standoff, and promises of Chinese purchases of more U.S. products to reduce the bilateral trade deficit," wrote Graham Allison, a professor of government at the Harvard Kennedy School, in an editorial for Foreign Policy magazine.
Allison was also an assistant defense secretary in the Clinton administration.
"The two leaders will also talk candidly in private about how they can work together to constrain the provocations of Taiwan's current government," Allison wrote.
Allison wrote that there are four principal considerations in Trump's approach to China:
- Trump is not a China hawk. "In a word association game, if the prompt were China, he would be as likely to respond 'friend' as 'foe,'" Allison wrote.
- Trump believes a strong U.S. economy is essential for the Republican Party's success in the 2026 midterm elections and believes a productive relationship with China is a prerequisite for a roaring U.S. economy.
- Trump aspires to be remembered as a "great peacemaker." "But that will not be possible unless he crafts a deal that establishes a productive relationship with China," Allison wrote. "Given the dark prospects for success in peacemaking in Ukraine and Gaza, Pax Pacifica may be his best chance."
- Trump's view of Taiwan is more compatible with China's than any U.S. president since World War II. Trump reportedly denied Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te permission to stop in New York on a trip originally planned for August, and Reuters reported Monday that Lai is delaying his trip until "later this year."
"On Xi's agenda with the United States, after avoiding a catastrophic war, the issue he cares about most is Taiwan," Allison wrote. "Taiwan is not likely to be settled as a real estate deal. But it is not hard to imagine a future in which the United States explicitly states its opposition to Taiwan's independence and its unwillingness to be provoked into a war with China over the island.
"As we await the results of the Stockholm meeting, we should be alert for clues to the road ahead. While Washington's disruptor-in-chief enjoys surprising his audiences and takes pride in being unpredictable, in this case, even his fiercest critics should consider the possibility that he surprises the world on the upside."
Michael Katz ✉
Michael Katz is a Newsmax reporter with more than 30 years of experience reporting and editing on news, culture, and politics.
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