The chances of an asteroid the size of a football field striking Earth in 2032 have been reduced to virtually zero, although the risk of it striking the moon slightly increased, NASA said.
On Tuesday, NASA said its Center for Near-Earth Object Studies at the agency’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California updated the impact probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032, to 3.1%, the highest impact probability NASA said it has recorded for an object of such size or larger. The asteroid is believed to be between 131 feet to 295 feet wide.
But NASA said Thursday that observations made overnight decreased the asteroid’s chance of impacting Earth to 0.28%.
“NASA’s planetary defense teams will continue to monitor the asteroid to improve our predictions of the asteroid’s trajectory,” NASA said in a statement. “With this new data, the chance of an impact with the Moon increased slightly to 1%.”
The Asteroid Terrestrial-Impact Last Alert System telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, first spotted the asteroid on Dec. 27. It is one of many asteroid discovery programs funded by NASA to scan the solar system in search of near-Earth asteroids.
Astronomers reportedly will be using NASA's James Webb Space Telescope next month to better observe the asteroid. They are limited to studying it through the visible light it reflects from the Sun.
The James Webb Telescope, which is about 1 million miles away from the Earth as it orbits the Sun, is the largest and most powerful telescope ever launched into space. It is able to study infrared light that 2024 YR4 emits rather than the visible light the asteroid reflects. Infrared observations can offer a much better estimate of an asteroid's size, according to a report in Nature published in December.
Initially, 2024 YR4 was rated a 3 out of 10 on NASA's Torino Impact Hazard Scale, with 10 being an asteroid "capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization." A rating of 3 is classified as "a close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction.”
But now the asteroid has a rating of 1, which is described as “a routine discovery in which a pass near the Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show the chance of collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern.”
"We are not at 0 yet, but Torino Scale 1 tells us further: 'New telescopic observations very likely will lead to reassignment to Level 0,' " Richard Binzel, creator of the Torino scale, told Space.com.
Michael Katz ✉
Michael Katz is a Newsmax reporter with more than 30 years of experience reporting and editing on news, culture, and politics.
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