Nate Silver: Harris to Receive 'Convention Bounce'

Vice President Kamala Harris' poll numbers will continue to climb after this week's Democratic National Convention, FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said.

The convention, Silver said in his Risky Business podcast, allows for four days of "free television advertising on every network," which will allow for a "convention bump or a convention bounce," Newsweek reported.

"We would expect her to get about maybe a four-or five-point lead in national polls, and be ahead in the large majority of swing state polls," Silver said on the podcast, which he hosts with writer Maria Konnikova. 

According to reporting in Silver's blog, "Silver Bulletin," Harris currently leads Republican nominee Donald Trump in five of seven key battleground states: Pennsylvania (46.6% to 44.7%), Wisconsin (47.3% to 44.1%), Michigan (46% to 43.1%), Arizona (45.2% to 44%), and Nevada (45% to 44.3%).

Harris has lost some momentum, especially in Pennsylvania, but then again, she is "maybe less dependent" there than President Joe Biden was for votes, Silver said. 

However, Silver said Harris has "other new pathways" to a win, including being a "slight favorite in our forecast in Arizona."

The Arizona numbers are "not a huge shock," Silver said, noting that the Democratic Party took Arizona in the 2020 election. However, this year, before he dropped out of the race, Biden was "way behind" in the state. 

Harris is also "quite close" in Georgia, and "surprisingly" close in North Carolina, said Silver, pointing out that she polls better than Biden among young voters of color who are "plentiful" in those states. 

Trump is leading Harris in Georgia (46.3% to 45.4%) and North Carolina (46.3% to 45.5%), Newsweek reported.

According to FiveThirty Eight, Harris is ahead in a national average of polls by 46.2% to 43.7%, and has a slight edge over Trump in at least two other national averages. 

Silver added that he expects the polls will "reset" before Sept. 10, when Trump and Harris are scheduled to debate for the first time.

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