More unwelcome news keeps popping up for a Democratic Party in crisis as Republicans are forecasted to win 11 of 16 toss-up races in November's election to retain their House majority.
The projection by DecisionDesk HQ, which Newsmax relies upon for election-night results, showed Republicans have a 65% chance of retaining their House majority, winning 223 seats compared with 212 for Democrats, The Hill reported Wednesday.
Democrats have been floundering since President Joe Biden's disastrous debate performance on June 27 against former President Donald Trump. It left Democrat lawmakers, high-powered donors and liberal media outlets chewing their fingernails about whether Biden, 81, the oldest-serving president in U.S. history, has the mental and physical capacity to not only defeat Trump but be able to serve another four-year term.
Not only that, but recent polling in battleground states Wisconsin and Pennsylvania indicate a seismic shift toward the former president. An AARP poll of likely voters released July 2 showed Trump with a 6-point lead in Wisconsin and the Cook Political Report stated Tuesday that private polling from Democrat and Republican sources revealed Trump extended his lead in Pennsylvania from 4 points to 10 following their debate.
"Six, seven months ago, it was a disaster for Republicans and [former Speaker] Kevin McCarthy and all that turmoil," Scott Tranter, director of data science at DDHQ, told The Hill. "But by and large, the generic ballot for Republicans has been good, unusually good, in a presidential year, and that has really trickled down to some of these House races, which is why we see the Republicans slightly favored in 11 of the 16 toss-ups."
Tranter said "atmospherics" tend to drive House races during a presidential year and noted that a "fair bit" of that is being driven by Biden's debate performance.
"I think the early data is a good trend for Republicans, and if the early data continues, the trend will only get better for the Republicans," Tranter said.
DecisionDesk HQ projected Trump has a 58% chance of winning the presidency, with him leading in 5 of 6 toss-up states, giving him 302 electoral votes, comfortably above the threshold of 280 to win the White House.
DecisionDesk HQ also projected that Republicans have an 82% chance of winning a majority in the Senate, with a possibility of flipping at least three seats.
Michael Katz ✉
Michael Katz is a Newsmax reporter with more than 30 years of experience reporting and editing on news, culture, and politics.
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