The race between Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is in a virtual tie, according to averages of national polls published Friday by FiveThirtyEight (538).
The website's averages say that Harris has support from 45% of voters, compared to 43.5% for Trump, putting the two within 538's uncertainty level, the website reports through ABC News.
The averages also show that third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy has 5.7% of the vote.
The website noted that its averages come out slightly better for Harris than in other aggregators because 538's averages only consider polls that began surveying voters once President Joe Biden dropped out of his race and endorsed Harris to replace him as the Democratic Party's nominee.
Earlier polls, which were considering hypothetic matchups, may have included voters who were considering theoretical arguments about the candidates that "are no longer to today's very real contest."
Harris, the site added, has performed at about 3 points better on the national level in polls coming after Biden left the race rather than before.
The site also adjusts polls conducted of registered voters or all adults, toward results of likely voters, as not all adults or registered voters will cast ballots, marking a difference between nonvoters.
There is also evidence showing that likely voters on average lean Democrat, so 538 adjusts for that by seeking differences between polls of likely, registered, or all adults and taking into consideration the pollster and how the survey was conducted.
Without the adjustment, 538 noted that Harris and Trump would be evenly tied at 44% each, according to the 538 polling averages.
The website also researches differences between polls that do or do not allow voters an opportunity to say that they support Kennedy or other third-party candidates.
"We find that, when Kennedy is included in polls, Harris's margin over Trump grows by about 0.5 points," the site reports.
Harris also got a further boost in the 538 national averages because of state polls held after Biden pulled out of the race.
In states that have been polled for Harris vs. Trump, Biden defeated Trump in 2020 by 3.8 points, compared to Harris' average polling lead of 1.1 points in that state. When the 2.7-point shift for Trump is added toward the national popular vote, it gives Harris a 1.8-point boost, according to 538.
Still, Biden was trailing Trump by 3 points on the day he dropped out, but it remains an "open question" whether Harris' numbers are better because she is a new candidate and whether her party's base is more likely to respond to surveys.
Sandy Fitzgerald ✉
Sandy Fitzgerald has more than three decades in journalism and serves as a general assignment writer for Newsmax covering news, media, and politics.
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