American experts are constantly warning us that China's growing military power is a threat toTaiwan and that the Chinese regime is preparing to seize it by force.
Chinese military forces are indeed increasing, but China would clearly be nuts to invade the neighboring island republic.
Why seize by force, with its casualties, destruction of property, and other costs, when you can achieve your objective non-violently and at much lower cost?
The official goal proclaimed by the Chinese regime is to bring Taiwan back into its "natural" relationship as a part of China.
But boundaries between political systems have historically been extremely fluid.
There is nothing "natural" about these boundaries, present or past.
Readers who doubt this should take a look at historical maps.
Most borders look stable in the short run, but they aren't stable when we enlarge the time-scale. A recent major example was the 1991 crackup of the Soviet Union, the national anthem of which claimed that it was an "unbreakable union."
When I began teaching about the USSR in 1964, it seemed permanent.
I had to change the name of my course to "Autopsy: USSR," 27 years later.
Still, despite the weakness of its claimed justification, integrating Taiwan into China does seem to be an actual Chinese goal.
But this does not mean that just any method of achieving that goal is a good idea.
China's leaders would be wise not to emulate Vladimir Putin's war to seize Ukraine, where he is using the similar claim that Ukraine is inherently a part of Russia.
An obvious difference between Russia and China is that Russia is a declining power while China is a rapidly growing power.
Russia's population is actually decreasing, and it is becoming a smaller and smaller part of the world's growing economy. Its only military asset is atomic weapons inherited from the Soviet Union. If Russia was going to grab Ukraine, it needed to try immediately.
China, on the other hand, is a growing power, an economic powerhouse, and well on the way to dominating the world economy, with its razor focus on green energy and production of the EV cars of the future.
Furthermore, the Chinese leadership is far more stable and experienced than Russia's kleptocratic leadership.
Given China's improving future prospects, its leadership can afford to be patient about achieving its goals, and given the regime's experienced leadership it can understand that drawing Taiwan into its orbit will not require the use of military force.
A country's economic power is like the gravitational power of planets.
The greater a country's economic power, the more the economies of other countries —especially nearby countries like Taiwan — will be dependent on it. If we imagine China to be like a planet, and Taiwan to be its moon, China's "gravitational" economy will draw Taiwan closer and closer, until . . .
There is no way to predict exactly how China and Taiwan will ultimately be joined together, but if it happens peacefully many lives will be spared on both sides, valuable production facilities in China and Taiwan will remain intact, benefiting the people on both sides of the relationship.
It would be extremely unwise for China's leaders to emulate the former German extremists with their slogan: “Und willst Du nicht mein Bruder sein, so schlag ich Dir den Schädel ein” (If you don't want to be my brother, I'll smash your skull in.)
China's leaders should play their strongest card here, not the military card with all of its disadvantages.
If they concentrate on governing China as well as they can and making life in it as attractive as possible, offering prosperity, stability, and personal security under the rule of law, Taiwan will be unable to resist being pulled fully into China's orbit.
Of course China's leaders may not understand this and may not be patient enough.
Unfortunately, foreign policy in all countries is often determined by internal political maneuvering rather than by objective evaluation of the world situation.
Let us hope that their generally wise development of their economy is matched by an equally wise approach to the Taiwan question.
After all, what good would it be for China to grab Taiwan if it was a hellscape like Gaza or Ukraine, with the surviving population seething with hatred for the invaders?
Paul F. deLespinasse is Professor Emeritus of Political Science and Computer Science at Adrian College. Read Professor Paul F. deLespinasse's Reports — More Here.
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