Trump's Vendetta Against Wind Power May Boost Solar

Ironically, Donald Trump's attacks on wind turbines could hasten the day when we stop burning coal, oil, and gas.

Trump is also less than enthusiastic about solar energy, the other main green source. But his special vendetta against wind power will increase investments in solar.

The economics of green energy have been rapidly changing. An older way to harness the sun was "concentrated solar power" (CSP). In the past CSP was much cheaper than PV panels.

CSP is not becoming more expensive, but PV panels are now much cheaper than CSP.

In concentrated solar power (CSP) large fields of mirrors concentrate sunlight on a small target, heating it up and generating steam. The steam runs a standard turbine to generate electricity.

CSP facilities, like wind turbines, require large amounts of materials to construct. They also need considerable maintenance. PV panels minimize needed materials, generate electricity directly, and require little maintenance.

Things have reached the point that at least one giant CSP installation will be torn down because it is no longer economically rational to operate it.

There are two kinds of wind turbine installations: on land, and in the oceans. Ocean-based turbines cost considerably more than land-based ones.

During the last 20 years the cost of PV panels has plunged to the point that the electricity they produce is cheaper than any alternative except land-based wind. It is already cheaper than electricity from ocean-based wind and from burning coal, oil, or gas.

The Wall Street Journal reports that "Since 1990, the cost of wind power has dropped by about 4% a year, solar energy by 12% a year and lithium-ion batteries by about 12% a year."

Since PV costs are going down three times as fast as the cost of wind turbines, most likely they will soon nose out land-based wind and become the cheapest source of electricity.

If wind turbines turn out, like Concentrated Solar Power, to have been bad investments, then Mr. Trump's attempts to halt construction of additional wind turbines could save investors a lot of money. And the less invested on wind turbines, the more is available for PV panels.

A mixture of solar and wind power does have one advantage, because wind power is often most available at night, whereas solar energy is produced during daytime when winds tend to blow less.

The advantage to a mixture of the two technologies will only last while local areas must rely on locally generated electricity. But this advantage won't last forever.

Larger and larger distribution grids are being built around the world. In due course, they will be connected to each other.

A worldwide grid will allow us to power the world entirely with solar energy, with little need for wind power to replace locally available solar energy during the night.

This is just my best guess since even experts find it difficult to predict how future technology will develop. According to Nevil Shute, an aeronautical engineer before becoming a novelist:

It was generally agreed in 1924 that the aeroplane would never be a very suitable vehicle for carrying passengers across oceans, and that airships [blimps] would operate all the long-distance routes of the future. We were all quite wrong, of course, but at that time it seemed reasonable; no aeroplane had yet succeeded in crossing the Atlantic from east to west whereas a German airship, the Graf Zeppelin, was already carrying commercial loads of passengers both ways to South America upon a regular schedule.

Or as Yogi Berra put it: "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future."

If Donald Trump's attacks on wind turbines hasten the day when the world stops burning coal, oil, and gas, it will reflect the difficulty today's energy giants face in knowing where their bread is buttered.

The money invested in Trump's election by these coal, oil, and gas interests may turn out to have been suicidal. One can hope.

Paul F. deLespinasse is Professor Emeritus of Political Science and Computer Science at Adrian College. Read Professor Paul F. deLespinasse's Reports — More Here.