Trump Has Once-in-a-Century Opportunity in Africa

OPINION

At Congo's Inga Falls, the world's deepest river plunges down a 315-foot drop, releasing more raw hydraulic energy than any site on Earth. Engineers have long envisioned harnessing that surge through the Grand Inga hydroelectric complex — a seven-station project that, if fully built, would dwarf China's Three Gorges Dam and generate enough electricity to light up the African continent, where 600 million people live without power.

The $80 billion mega project has been paralyzed for over a decade by financing hurdles, governance concerns, and partner churn. In June, that stalemate cracked: The World Bank approved a new $250 million preparation package eight years after suspending its support and five months after China's state-owned China Three Gorges Corporation walked away.

Kinshasa has since reopened bidding for the first planned station, Inga III.

With Beijing in retreat and multilaterals reengaged, President Donald Trump has the opportunity to stamp "Made in America" on the biggest energy build of the century. Done right, Grand Inga can uplift 1.5 billion Africans, create business opportunities for American firms, secure mineral supply chains, and tilt the balance of economic influence in a region where China has spent a decade deepening its footprint through the Belt and Road Initiative.

Demographic pressures offer the first rationale for American engagement.

Africa will add another billion people by 2050, most of them young and urban. Forty-three percent of Africans lack electricity, and continental power demand will triple in the next 15 years.

Without a rapid expansion of reliable electricity, that demographic dividend could overwhelm fragile economies, drive large-scale emigration, and intensify instability. Inga III alone could deliver eleven gigawatts — the output of four Hoover Dams — while subsequent stages could supply 40 to 70 gigawatts, supporting the broad-based electrification and industrial development needed to absorb Africa's growth.

Delivering African energy access would position U.S. industry to capitalize on one of the fastest-growing marketplaces on the globe, anchored by the world's largest free-trade area. The African middle class is already 300 million strong and could reach 1.1 billion by 2060.

The continent's "mobile-first" population is powering one of the biggest e-commerce booms on Earth, with double-digit growth expected through 2029. Combined household and business spending could hit $6.7 trillion by 2030 and $16.12 trillion by 2050.

Sub-Saharan Africa is also the most mineral-rich region on Earth, home to about 30% of global mineral reserves essential for advanced defense technologies, consumer electronics, and clean energy systems. Congo alone produces 70% of the world's cobalt, most of which flows straight to Chinese refineries.

Reliable baseload power could transform sub-Saharan countries from raw-material suppliers into competitive processing hubs, diluting Beijing's near monopoly on midstream processing and securing diversified, low-carbon supply chains for minerals essential to American industry.

Geopolitical considerations sharpen the case. Grand Inga is the sort of megaproject Beijing once made its signature; since 2013, Beijing has signed more than $700 billion in Belt and Road Initiative contracts with 52 African governments and funded one-fifth of Africa's new infrastructure.

That spree is now stalling, thanks to China's domestic slowdown, thin project margins, and a "tidal wave" of debt-service distress across borrower states. Rather than remain a spectator, the United States should capitalize on this strategic opening before it closes.

Grand Inga could headline a new American "offer" to Africa: financing that mobilizes private capital, leverages U.S. technological advantages, and delivers commercially viable assets —not opaque debt. Only America can take this project over the finish line; no other country matches the financial depth, engineering expertise, and project execution that U.S. firms and capital markets provide.

Still, the challenges are real: Congo's poor governance scores, the unprecedented scale of the project, and the need for thousands of miles of new transmission infrastructure. None is fatal, but the Chinese walked away for a reason.

To attract American interest, Grand Inga needs a governance and engineering architecture that insulates contracts, project management, and revenues from potential corruption.

Momentum is building in the right direction. The World Bank's new tranche — the first installment of a $1 billion program — will finance local infrastructure and detailed studies while establishing a ring-fenced governance framework.

Kinshasa is courting bids for a blended-finance engineering, procurement, and construction consortium; regional governments are actively negotiating long-term power-purchase agreements; and the African Development Bank is lining up parallel capital. A two-tier firewall can reassure investors.

First, the project should sit in an international special-purpose vehicle that leaves 51% of the equity with Congo but assigns an American–appointed golden share the power to veto any asset transfer, dividend raid, or politicized hiring.

All revenue would pass through an offshore escrow account so that operations, maintenance, and debt service are paid before a single Congolese franc reaches the treasury, with lenders and the golden-share trustee retaining step-in rights if covenants are breached. Escrow cash pays Treasury's guarantee fees first, so U.S. taxpayers never see the invoice.

Second, procurement and construction should be handled by a performance-bonded independent engineering and procurement agent chosen through an open, Tier-1 tender. This agent would certify every milestone, publish all contracts online, and lodge 5% of its fee in an on-demand bond — effectively serving as a site sheriff while it trains a Congolese engineering corps and keeps graft at bay.

Uganda's 250-megawatt Bujagali Dam offers proof that the model works: The plant has operated for more than a decade under the same golden-share and escrow system, has twice refinanced into cheaper debt, and has never missed a payment. The same International Finance Corporation performance standards that protected communities at Bujagali will govern resettlement, river flow, and biodiversity here.

If the approach succeeds on the Nile, it can scale on the Congo.

By positioning the United States as the primary partner in a multilateral effort with baked-in safeguards, the Trump administration can maximize influence while sharing risks and ensure American firms share in the upside. U.S. sponsors could hold minority stakes in the special purpose vehicle, secure performance-linked operations contracts, or lock in an energy-tolling tranche that yields steady, hard-currency revenue — and those dollars would flow back home as orders for turbines, grid software, and decades of maintenance support.

With those protections in place, Washington can deploy the existing tools in its arsenal.

The Development Finance Corporation can take a first-loss equity stake or provide political-risk insurance to crowd-in private capital. The Export-Import Bank can de-risk multibillion-dollar orders by issuing buyer-credit guarantees covering U.S. turbines, high-voltage direct current converters, and heavy equipment.

The U.S. Trade and Development Agency can fund the critical early-stage work — technical assistance, feasibility studies, environmental and social baselines, and transmission-route design — that turns headline concepts into bankable projects.

Combined with "Buy American" mandates, these guarantees can position American firms and subcontractors to deliver and capture the upside. Export-Import Bank modeling suggests every $1 billion in financing supports roughly 3,000 U.S. jobs; an Inga III package could yield tens of billions in contracts over a decade.

For a president with a career built on landmark deals, Grand Inga offers one of historic consequence: Electrify sub-Saharan Africa, create thousands of American jobs, secure critical mineral supplies, and cement the United States — not China — as Africa's partner of choice. The White House has already announced a U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit for this fall — the perfect forum for President Trump to unveil the biggest infrastructure offer since the Marshall Plan to a continent hungry for reliable power and honest partners.

If Washington delivers, Grand Inga can be rebranded the Trump Dam — a legacy-defining asset that lights up a continent, rewires global supply chains, and plants an American flag on a once-in-a-century project that unlocks the next wave of global growth.

Daniel F. Runde is the author of the book "The American Imperative: Reclaiming Global Leadership Through Soft Power" (Bombardier Books, 2023).