Obamacare installed a Premium Tax Credit (PTC) that expires by the end of 2025, but new polling suggests House Republicans should move now to extend it for 2026 in order to salvage their slim majority.
Battleground district Republicans on a generic ballot can turn what is a 3-point deficit today into a 6-point lead — a 9-point swing — by extending the expiring PTC for Fiscal Year 2026, according to the latest survey from pollsters Tony Fabrizio & Bob Ward.
The costs of the ostensible tax hike are even worse if the House GOP does not act. Failing to deliver that could hand the House GOP majority to Democrats, because the battleground Democrats would lead by 15 points — a 12-point sink further to the downside — the poll found.
It is a measure that was not provided in the One Big Beautiful Bill but would need to come in new legislation or a 2026 budget omnibus.
"Our survey of voters in the most competitive congressional districts shows Republicans have an opportunity to overcome a current generic ballot deficit and take the lead by extending the healthcare premium tax credits for those who purchase health insurance for themselves," the pollsters concluded in a memo of the poll's findings.
House GOP members will need to lead the way on extending an Obamacare provision, albeit one representing a tax cut versus a projected hike in healthcare marketplace costs on Americans relying on the PTC.
"Unlike recent changes to Medicaid which do not go into effect until after the midterm elections, voters on the individual insurance marketplace, who voted for Trump by 4-points, will begin getting notices of significant premium hikes this fall," the pollster's memo warned. "The incentive is to act on extending the tax credit soon. Republicans can position themselves ahead of Democrats in these districts by extending the premium tax credit and using the individual market as a landing spot for working-age adults on Medicaid.
"The Republican candidate that supports that policy would lead the Democrat on the generic ballot by 6-points overall, and among those most motivated to vote by 4-points, completely changing the political dynamic to the Republican's favor."
Midterm elections tend to be unfavorable for sitting president's party. Former President George W. Bush in 2002 is the last one to have his party hold the House majority through a midterm election.
Trump had once sought to spike Obamacare, but now the balance of his second term might hinge on House Republicans passing an extension of one of its key provisions.
Fabrizio Ward polled 1,000 registered voters in the 28 top House battleground districts July 7-10. The battleground districts were parsed as the 15 won by the Republican by a margin of 5% or less in 2024 and the 13 won by a Democrat but also won by Trump.
Eric Mack ✉
Eric Mack has been a writer and editor at Newsmax since 2016. He is a 1998 Syracuse University journalism graduate and a New York Press Association award-winning writer.
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