Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris are locked in tight battles across the seven swing states that will decide the 2024 election, according to a new Emerson College/The Hill poll released Thursday.
All seven races are within each state's margin of error, according to the poll:
- Arizona: Trump 50%, Harris 47%
- Georgia: Harris 49%, Trump 48%
- Michigan: Harris 50%, Trump 47%
- Nevada: Harris 49%, Trump 48%
- North Carolina: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
- Pennsylvania: Trump 48%, Harris 48%
- Wisconsin: Trump 49%, Harris 48%
The closeness of the battleground states mirrors the RealClearPolitics polling average, which shows Harris with a 1.7-point lead nationally.
In the Emerson poll, Harris leads Trump among independent voters in every state except Nevada:
- Arizona: Harris 51%, Trump 45%
- Georgia: Harris 54%, Trump 38%
- Michigan: Harris 46%, Trump 43%
- North Carolina: Harris 48%, Trump 46%
- Nevada: Trump 50%, Harris 44%
- Pennsylvania: Harris 48%, Trump 40%
- Wisconsin: Harris 52%, Trump 43%
Harris also leads Trump with women in every state except Arizona, and she sweeps every state among voters under age 30. Trump sweeps every state among male voters, according to the survey.
Five of the battleground states are also holding competitive Senate races, and the Democrat candidates all lead in those, according to Emerson.
Emerson College conducted the survey from Aug. 26-28. In Arizona, 720 likely voters were polled with a margin of error of 3.6%. In Michigan and Georgia, 800 likely voters were polled with a margin of error for each of 3.4%. In Pennsylvania, 950 likely voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 3.1%. In Nevada, 1,168 likely voters were surveyed with a margin of error of 2.8%; 775 likely voters were polled in North Carolina with a margin of error of 3.5%. In Wisconsin, 850 likely voters were polled, with a margin of error of 3.3%.
Mark Swanson ✉
Mark Swanson, a Newsmax writer and editor, has nearly three decades of experience covering news, culture and politics.
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