On his trip this week to the Middle East, President Donald Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, though his most pressing regional challenges concern two other countries: Israel and Iran.
After ending a ceasefire two months ago, Israel is intensifying the war in the Gaza Strip, where a blockade on food, medicine and other supplies is worsening a humanitarian crisis. And Iran, an enemy of Israel and a rival of Saudi Arabia, stands on the cusp of being able to develop nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile, Trump is focusing on three energy-rich nations that are home to current or planned Trump-branded real estate projects, where he seeks to align American economic interests with potential business opportunities.
“This is his happy place,” said Jon B. Alterman, a senior vice president at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. “His hosts will be generous and hospitable. They’ll be keen to make deals. They’ll flatter him and not criticize him. And they’ll treat his family members as past and future business partners.”
But Trump won’t be able to avoid altogether diplomacy on Gaza or Iran: The Gulf countries hosting him are also interested in easing the regional tensions that emanate from these two places.
“Trump can easily score a win by reassuring them of America’s strategic commitment to the region, demonstrating consistent messaging and generally rising above the fray,” analysts Elizabeth Dent and Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy wrote Friday.
By not including a visit to Israel on his first trip to the region during his second term, Trump has led some in Israel to question whether their country's interests are a priority for his administration.
This perception grew last week after Trump announced that the U.S. would pause its strikes on the Houthis, an Iran-backed group in Yemen that had agreed to halt attacks on American vessels in the Red Sea.
The Houthis' attacks on Israel did not appear to be covered by that deal, which came as a surprise to Israel, according to an Israeli official who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive diplomatic issue. Days after the deal between the U.S. and the Houthis — and despite a two-day Israeli assault on Houthi targets — a missile from Yemen again set off air raid sirens in Israel. Then Israel's military warned Sunday that Houthi-controlled ports in Yemen could be targeted again.
Trump’s decision to begin negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program raised concerns in Israel, where officials worry that a potential deal may not include strong enough measures to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons or limiting its support for regional armed groups.
Israel had hoped that Trump might provide military assistance in any strike it carried out on the country's nuclear facilities — an action that is unrealistic so long as there are negotiations, or if they reach a deal.
That has raised questions in Israel over Trump's reliability on other major issues, like a long-sought normalization deal with Saudi Arabia as part of any defense pact the administration may reach with the kingdom. Saudi Arabia has said it would only normalize ties with Israel in exchange for significant concessions for the Palestinians toward statehood, something the current Israeli government is unlikely to agree to.
Israel says it will wait until after Trump’s visit to expand its operations in Gaza, allowing time for a possible new ceasefire. But Trump’s attention to the conflict seems to have decreased, and it’s unclear how much his administration is pushing for a deal. He has supported Israel’s actions and, like Israel, blames Hamas for civilian deaths.
U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said Trump’s decision not to visit Israel was not significant, explaining in Israeli media interviews that the trip was focused on economic issues.
And on Sunday, Hamas said the last living American hostage in Gaza, Edan Alexander, will be released as part of efforts to establish a ceasefire, reopen crossings into the Israeli-blockaded territory and resume the delivery of aid.
For Iran, much depends on the talks it is having with the U.S. over its rapidly advancing nuclear program. A reported two-month deadline to reach a deal likely has passed as U.S. officials signal America may push for Iran to give up enrichment entirely — something Tehran has insisted is a red line.
Although four rounds of talks mediated by Oman have not led to a major breakthrough, they have gone into the so-called “expert level” — meaning specifics about any possible accord likely have been discussed.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi traveled over the weekend to both Saudi Arabia and Qatar ahead of Trump’s trip. Iran likely is trying to pass messages to the U.S. while signaling its interest in continuing the talks. Iranian officials increasingly threaten to pursue a nuclear weapon, while Trump and Israel have both threatened to strike Iranian nuclear sites if a deal isn't reached.
The Islamic Republic is running out of options. Its economy has cratered since Trump in 2018 unilaterally pulled America out of their initial nuclear deal with world powers. And Iran's self-described “Axis of Resistance” — a group of aligned nations and militant groups, including Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon — has been mauled since the Israel-Hamas war began.
Iran also faces internal political pressure, including from women increasingly refusing to wear the state-mandated headscarf, or hijab.
After starting his trip in Saudi Arabia, Trump will then go to Qatar, which recently announced plans for a Trump-branded development there.
This tight embrace of the president comes after his first trip to the Middle East — in 2017 — which reportedly sparked what became known as the Qatar crisis. That is when Bahrain, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE boycotted Qatar over its support of Islamists in the region and its ties to Iran, with which it shares a massive offshore natural gas field.
With crude oil prices just over $60 a barrel — the lowest levels since 2021 — one major criticism Trump has of the Gulf states is absent. The challenge now is how Trump will address the region's numerous crises and lingering tensions.
To avoid a repeat of the 2017 diplomatic crisis, Trump “should reemphasize efforts to unite the Gulf" said Dent and Henderson, of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
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