OPINION
Following last month's historic presidential election, the U.S. has a unique opportunity to reset the table in Ukraine and take an enhanced role in restoring NATO's founding raison d'etre of deterrence and providing security.
It's a generational chance to secure peace in what is the bloodiest conventional war on the European continent since World War II — one that that Russia has unrepentantly wrought because the collective West hasn't given "as much as it takes" to ensure a decisive victory.
There has been a great deal of hand wringing from both sides of the aisle on the implications of a second Trump administration for the future of Ukraine.
Having spent over 20 years conducting business in Ukraine, I am optimistic about what the new, incoming administration will be able to accomplish in the region. To understand the impact of President-elect Donald Trump, the state of the war must be soberly assessed.
In its multiple phases, the war initially was off to a strong start where a combination of U.S. Javelin missiles, HIMARS rocket systems, and fearless fighting by Ukrainian soldiers led to the successful defense of Kyiv, the retaking of Kherson, and a counteroffensive to the east of Kharkiv that allowed Ukraine to take back a great deal of territory.
Additionally, a string of successes via the deployment of drone technology allowed Kyiv to cripple the Russian Black Sea Fleet and reopen shipping lanes for its critical grain exports.
From then on, the Biden administration became overcautious and was slow to adjust its deployment of resources for Ukraine as Russia also adapted to modern warfare and reality on the ground.
Moreover, the Biden administration's policy of avoiding "escalation" at all costs clashed with some policy positions of America's NATO allies. At home, the Biden administration was hamstrung by a Congress that prioritized domestic politics in the run-up to the presidential elections.
In turn, this slow drip of support to Kyiv caused a great deal of frustration both in Kyiv and with many of the U.S.'s allies in Europe and elsewhere.
Consequently, Ukraine is currently locked in a grinding WWI-style war of attrition, allowing the Russians to dig in and fortify their gains in the eastern part of the country. Despite these shortcomings, the Russian army has proven itself to be one of history's biggest paper tigers.
Despite a roughly 8-to-1 advantage in manpower and an almost 10-to-1 advantage in firepower, Russia has made only minor, incremental gains this year at an unsustainable cost of human lives and equipment that has never been seen before in modern warfare. More than 1,000 Russian soldiers have been dying daily over the past several months.
Russia now devotes 6% of its gross domestic product to fuel its war effort as its economy faces increasing pressure from overheating. And while Russia still produces more armaments than Europe, the West is closing the gap. Meanwhile, Ukraine has become Europe's strongest land army and is leading the world in domestic drone production.
At home in Russia cracks are starting to show as inflation spikes, labor shortages abound, and production can't keep up with demand. The ruble has tanked to less than one penny to the dollar.
Thus, the Trump administration enters with the chance to reestablish the U.S.'s global leadership by restoring confidence in the West.
Securing peace in Ukraine will communicate geopolitical force during a generational moment in global politics. Trump has taken personal responsibility for the outcome of this war and regardless of personal opinions toward his approach, Trump is tenacious when it comes to getting what he wants — the last election serves as a prime example.
Whatever happens next will be a big part of the president-elect's legacy.
Trump has explicitly stated that previous U.S. foreign policy decisions emboldened Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin to attack Ukraine.
"Putin saw what happened in Afghanistan and knew it was time to move," Trump said.
Therefore, any chance for peace must be rooted in a display of American strength, not weakness.
What does peace look like and what form will this resolution take?
Trump has already rightfully called on every NATO member country to meet the alliance's recommended threshold of devoting 2% of GDP to defense spending. I would argue this number should be raised to 3%, closer to the 5% NATO members were contributing during the Cold War.
Moreover, years of Russian appeasement by the EU led to this problem, hence, a solution needs to be footed by Brussels. And I think President Trump is wise to seek to empower the countries on NATO's eastern edge to lead and provide the greatest amount of support, as they know the Russian menace the best and have the most at risk should a Ukraine peace falter.
After three years of war, Ukrainians desire a just and long-lasting peace with security guarantees.
I've lived and worked in Ukraine for more than two decades and have been massively supportive of my home away from home. My efforts prompted the Ukrainian Parliament to award me its Medal of Honor for my support.
And since the war began, I have been in Ukraine on a regular basis. During this time, people in Kyiv and around Ukraine have told me across kitchen tables about the need for a "lasting peace" to end the needless suffering.
Despite contrary rhetoric from official Ukrainian channels, locals are willing to find a path to peace, provided they can be assured that Russia will not return to continue the fight in five to 10 years.
To most Ukrainians at this point, it is clear their best avenue of success would be to force Russia to take responsibility for reconstruction in regions in Ukraine. Once the ravaged portion of Ukraine is accounted for, it will serve as an albatross that will burden the Russian economy for a generation.
Nick Piazza has been investing and doing business in Ukraine for over 20 years. For his efforts to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, he was awarded a Parliamentary Medal of Honor by the Ukrainian Parliament.
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