(Editor's Note: The following opinion column does not constitute an endorsement of any political party, or candidate, on the part of Newsmax.)
What's the secret source of Donald Trump’s superpowers?
His unrivaled ability to propound something, true or false, by stating it with unshakeable confidence.
Millions of Americans thereby find him both persuasive and endearing.
This power propelled him to the presidency in 2016, kept him in the spotlight during his years as president-in-exile, and stages him for re-election (maybe).
What’s Trump’s secret?
David Dunning and Justin Kruger once upon a time discovered the (controversial) "Dunning-Kruger effect," rooted in (some) people's overconfidence.
Rita Carter, "an award-winning medical and science writer, lecturer and broadcaster who specializes in the human brain," in "Read People: Understand Behavior. Expertly Communicate," connects the dots for us:
"The effect of overconfidence permeates every bit of our lives.
"We are easily swayed by others’ confidence, even when it's unjustified, and displays of confidence are given an inordinate amount of weight.
"Not only do people give confident types higher status, they also like them more.
"Researcher Cameron Anderson from the University of California noted that after certain overconfident students in an experiment were shown to be bluffing, their classmates still thought they were terrific. "The most overconfident people were considered the most beloved," he remarked. …
"We might be attracted to it but is high overconfidence really a good thing? It can be dangerous; it is probably responsible for a huge number of road accidents — 90% of drivers think they are above average — and economic disasters — a long-term study of professional financiers found they would have done better if they had stayed in bed.
"In very real terms, confidence is a key factor in pay inequality between the sexes — men tend to think that they are worth more, so they ask for more, and in return, tend to get more."
The New York Times’s senior political correspondent Maggie Haberman, arguably the world’s leading Trumpolologist, titled her big book on Trump "Confidence Man."
Despite her consistently unflattering news reports, Trump reportedly "gushed to his aides during one of his interviews with the Pulitzer Prize-winning Times journalist: 'I love being with her, she’s like my psychiatrist.'"
Haberman, probably correctly, dismissed this as manipulative flattery. And yet...
Confidence Man? Give this lady another Pulitzer!
The Dunning-Kruger effect recognizes that confidence does not consistently correlate with competence. Confidence then combines with the very human propensity both to admire and like people based upon their projecting supreme self-confidence rather than based on their competence or their ability to benefit us.
People, oddly, tend to admire and like very confident people even notwithstanding demonstrated propensities to do things wildly detrimental to our interests, e.g., imposing promiscuous tariffs, deporting millions of taxpaying, otherwise law-abiding, unskilled and semi-skilled workers, and torpedoing the value of the dollar.
Rita Carter reports on yet another experiment:
"The overconfident people overvalued their ideas, while the underconfident players went the other way.
"Interestingly, it turned out that the confident people were the most wrong – if the team really had been exploring virgin territory, it would have been better to follow those who were less sure of what they were doing."
The propensity of some people to overconfidence, and of others to admire the overconfident, is what psychologists call a "cognitive bias." Per VeryWellMind.com:
"Everyone exhibits cognitive bias. It might be easier to spot in others, but it is important to know that it is something that also affects your thinking. Some signs that you might be influenced by some type of cognitive bias include:
"Only paying attention to news stories that confirm your opinions
"Blaming outside factors when things don't go your way
"Attributing other people's success to luck, but taking personal credit for your own accomplishments
"Assuming that everyone else shares your opinions or beliefs
"Learning a little about a topic and then assuming you know all there is to know about it."
Donald Trump displays every sign of overconfidence.
Yet, wonderful to relate, in politics overconfidence is an asset.
Not a liability.
In the overconfidence department, Donald Trump is the undeniable leader.
He runs rings around his adversaries.
Trump has a virtuoso grasp of cognitive bias and how to exploit that for fun and profit. How's that?
As H.L. Mencken observed in "A Few Pages of Notes," "Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard."
Or as Immanuel Kant observed in "Idea for a Universal History with a Cosmopolitan Purpose": "Out of the crooked timber of humanity, no straight thing was ever made."
Maggie Haberman, I've got something to say!
The secret of Donald Trump’s political superpowers?
His supreme overconfidence coupled with many voters' propensity to exalt the overconfident.
Behold the power of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Ralph Benko, co-author of "The Capitalist Manifesto" and chairman and co-founder "The Capitalist League," He's also the founder of The Prosperity Caucus and is an original Kemp-era member of the Supply-Side revolution that propelled the Dow from 814 to its current heights and world GDP from $11T to $104T. Read Ralph Benko's reports — More Here.
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