In 1993, Jack Lemmon and Walter Matthau stared in a hilarious comedy called "Grumpy Old Men." They played two widowers who were competing for the same woman, who was played by Ann-Margret.
The poster for the movie said it all: "The best of enemies until something came between them."
Nothing could better describe the current tensions between Greece and Turkey. On top of centuries of unremittent hostility, competition for energy could spark a war in this region.
We should remember that Greece and Turkey nearly went to war in 1987 over drilling rights in the Aegean Sea.
With the current wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, all of NATO's members should find ways to avoid any further conflicts in the region. Galip Dalay, an expert on Turkey, wrote a fascinating article for the Brookings Institution about the conflict between Greece and Turkey.
"The maritime dispute between the two countries centers on three issues: 1) disagreement over the boundaries of Greek territorial waters and the ownership of certain islands or isles in the Aegean Sea; 2) the question of the two countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZs) in the eastern Mediterranean; and 3) the unresolved nature of the Cyprus crisis," Dalay wrote.
When Greece restored won its independence, after nearly four centuries under the rule of Ottoman Empire (1453-1830), the land boundaries were eventually established; the maritime boundaries were not.
To resolve this dispute over maritime boundaries, Greece supports the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. This treaty favors Greece's interests.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan favors a "Mavi Vatan" (Blue Homeland) policy. Professor Ryan Gingeras of the Naval Postgraduate School wrote: "Central to these interests is the presence of large deposits of natural gas off the coast of the island of Cyprus.
"For Turkey, the lion's share of these deposits lies within what Turkey interprets is its exclusive economic zone. Such a stance, however, is at odds with claims made by Greece and the Republic of Cyprus."
Neither side is going to back down, but the recent Turkish economic crisis might give us a chance to keep peace.
According to the Congressional Research Service (CRS), "For more than a decade, Turkey's currency (the lira) has been trending downward relative to the dollar, with its decline probably driven in part by broader concerns by foreign investors about Turkey's rule of law and economy."
In May, the CRS reported that lira has lost 88% of its value against the dollar since 2018. Six years ago, Paul Krugman wrote in the New York Times: "What's happening in Turkey is a classic currency-and-debt crisis, of a kind we've seen many times in Asia and Latin America.
"First, a nation becomes popular with international investors and runs up substantial foreign debt — in Turkey's case, largely debt owed by domestic corporations. ... And at that point a self-reinforcing crisis becomes possible: External factors cause a loss in confidence, which causes a country's currency to drop, but the falling currency causes the domestic value of those foreign debts to explode, worsening the economy, leading to further declines in confidence, and so on."
International investors would have good reasons to leave unless the United States and its European allies encourage investors to stay. The price for our help is for Turkey to end its hostile foreign policy toward its neighbors, including Greece, Armenia, Cyprus, Israel, and Iraq.
Turkey also needs to reform its economy. Turkey's main problem is energy imports.
According to Carnegie Europe, "In 2022, Turkey imported 100 percent of the natural gas it consumed, 91 percent of its oil products, and 77 percent of its coal."
In the same report, Carnegie Europe stressed that Turkey's energy imports are a big part of the country's economic crisis.
"Energy is a very important and costly item in the country's budget. In the last decade, Turkey's current account balance was negative every year except for 2019, but if energy was excluded, the country generally recorded a surplus."
Turkey's rising demand of energy and its need for more imports are generating enormous instability in the Eastern Mediterranean.
According to the Energy Information Administration, Turkey's natural gas reserves in the Black Sea are now estimated to be 25 trillion cubic feet. This natural gas is mostly in the Sakarya field (19 to 23 tcf) and the Caycuma-1 field (2 tcf).
This field is expected to provide 30% of Turkey natural gas demand in a few years. In the meantime, Turkey should be invited to join as a member in the East Mediterranean Gas Forum.
This forum already includes Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt.
Turkey needs to work with these countries to peacefully develop its fields and modernize its economy.
Robert Zapesochny is a researcher and writer whose work focuses on foreign affairs, national security and presidential history. He has been published in numerous outlets, including The American Spectator, the Washington Times, and The American Conservative. When he's not writing, Robert works for a medical research company in New York. Read Robert Zapesochny's Reports — More Here.
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