Store Shelves Could Be Empty by Summer as China Imports Come to a Halt

Shoppers could begin seeing emptier store shelves as soon as May, with mom-and-pop stores the most likely to face shortages of goods, the New York Post reports.

China imports scheduled to arrive at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach May 4 to May 10 are down 43% from the same period last year, according to Vizion data.

By comparison, in the week of April 20 to April 26, importers increased their shipments from China by 57% to frontload inventory ahead of Trump’s 145% tariffs on China.

It typically takes a shipment from China two to three weeks to arrive at West Coast ports.

The reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 on 90 nations were given a 90-day reprieve to enable trade negotiations — which would make them effective in August if the United States does not reach trade agreements with its trading partners.

However, China's tariffs became effective immediately.

“The small- and medium-sized retailers will have a harder time to mitigate the tariffs and would be the first to run out of inventory,” said Jonathan Gold, vice president for supply chain and customs policy at the National Federation of Retailers.

Of the containerized imports that the U.S. imports from Asia, China accounts for 54% of the goods, including electronics, toys, clothing, furniture and building materials.

China accounted for 13.4% of all U.S. goods imports last year, totaling $438.9 billion, making China the top supplier of goods to the United States. 

“Things can’t be inventoried,” said Rita McGrath, a professor at Columbia Business School who specializes in strategic management. “You’ll see [shortages] in a matter of weeks, maybe not even months. I also think you’ll start to see things become scare during the big summer holidays.”

Bobby Shoule, a customs broker with JW Hampton Jr. & Co., a 160-year-old logistics company out of Jamaica, Queens, in New York, predicts import scarcities will start in the next three to four weeks, meaning that they will kick in a big way by the middle to the end of May.

Sunlight Sports of Cody, Wyoming, owner Wes Allen, said the vendors he uses are laying off people in order to pay the tariffs, and even then, prices are already going up.

“The things we are importing directly are costing way more than we thought they would,” Allen said.

Shipping experts are fearful that American retailers and consumers could experience the same type of shortages they endured during the COVID pandemic. For their part, importers are worried about sales if U.S. consumer sentiment continues to skid.

“Think about your own economy,” McGrath said. “You wouldn’t put money down if you had no idea what the situation was going to be going forward.”

Already, 80 container ships headed for Asia have skipped Chinese ports due to the tariffs.

Back in the U.S., a reduction in international trade is likely to result in container ships sitting idly, causing port gridlock, warned Larry Gross, president of Gross Transportation Consulting.

“We are seeing ships being unloaded now, and probably next week, that were sent out at full capacity weeks ago,” Gross said. “Those things take up valuable space at these ports.”