Germany’s 2026 federal budget is set. The cabinet has reached an agreement on the framework, with only parliamentary approval pending—a mere formality. With a record deficit and no credible path to fiscal consolidation, Germany is lurching toward a debt crisis.
On Wednesday, the federal cabinet greenlit the 2026 budget. Core expenditures are projected at €520.5 billion, €174.3 billion of which must be financed through new debt. This includes €89.9 billion in traditional borrowing and an additional €84.4 billion categorized as “special funds” directed toward infrastructure and climate initiatives.
Only with creative accounting has Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD) managed to present his deficit-ridden budget as Maastricht-compliant. Total new borrowing amounts to 3.3% of GDP—well above the 3% EU ceiling.
The reclassification of large parts of government spending marks a new chapter in fiscal recklessness. Any meaningful consolidation or structural reform is being kicked down the road.
Between 2025 and 2029, over €850 billion in new debt is planned.
Debt as Coalition Glue
The common denominator uniting the coalition of conservatives and social democrats is one thing: a massive debt package expected to pour over the country in coming years. The projected borrowing would push Germany’s debt-to-GDP ratio from 63% to over 90%, rapidly aligning the country with the debt profiles of Southern Europe.
But the crisis is not a distant threat—it’s already here. Near-daily headlines report fresh deficits from the country’s social insurance funds, and promised relief for citizens—like the cut in electricity taxes—has already been abandoned. Budgeting in Berlin has shifted into permanent crisis mode.
Social Security in Free Fall
While politicians in Berlin bicker over cost-cutting, serious consolidation measures vanish in the trenches between coalition factions. Meanwhile, the foundations of the welfare state are crumbling.
According to the statutory health insurance forecasting board (GKV), the system expects a record €47 billion deficit this year. That number is likely to rise further in tandem with the country’s deepening recession.
Hopes for a job market rebound have all but evaporated, with Germany entering its third year of contraction.
Long-term care insurers are also ringing alarm bells. Their current shortfall is €1.55 billion, and the Association of Statutory Health Insurance Funds warns it could double by 2026.
The national pension system fares no better. After a €2 billion deficit last year, the government forecasts a €7 billion shortfall for this year.
The exploding social deficits reflect not only failed immigration and demographic policies but also the fallout of a recession-prone economic model. The burden is falling squarely on the workforce—threatening a deepening loss of faith in the welfare system. For many, it’s becoming a bottomless pit, a hamster wheel from which there is no escape.
Workers Shouldering the Burden
The pain threshold for contributors has already been reached. The average social contribution rate now stands at 42.5% of taxable income. Health insurance alone—bloated with bureaucracy, expanded services, and rising staff costs—consumes 17.5%, including a 2.9% surcharge. Another hike is looming in 2025, driven in part by the multi-billion euro hospital transformation fund.
The long-term outlook is grim. Projections by the IGES Institute show pension contributions could rise above 21% by 2035, alongside 3.4% for unemployment insurance and 4.7% for long-term care. The German welfare machine is speeding full throttle toward a debt wall, dragging the federal budget down with it.
A Fiscal Capitulation
The 2026 budget marks a fiscal surrender by the Merz government. It offers no solution to the social insurance crisis.
Germany, once hailed for its sound budgeting and feared as the austerity enforcer during Europe’s last debt meltdown, is losing control over the financing of its bloated welfare state. With social deficits multiplying rapidly, the federal budget becomes a meaningless formality—soon to be patched up with endless supplementary budgets.
The only certainty is that Germany has entered an era of accelerated indebtedness. Political consensus is now bought with the sweet poison of cheap credit. The country edges closer to the political gridlock and debt spirals witnessed in France—where structural reform becomes all but impossible.
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Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination. Follow him on Twitter/X: https://x.com/ThomKolbe.
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