AccuWeather meteorologists are predicting that there will be 20 to 25 named storms in the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Eight to 12 of those storms are forecast to strengthen into hurricanes. Four to six storms could directly impact the United States.
"The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and direct U.S. impacts," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva. "All indications are pointing toward a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024."
"Sea-surface temperatures are well above historical average across much of the Atlantic basin, especially across the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and the Main Development Region," DaSilva explained.
Warm water can act as fuel for tropical systems to rapidly intensify into powerful and destructive hurricanes.
AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter said there is high confidence that sea-surface temperatures across the Atlantic basin will remain well above the historical average throughout the 2024 hurricane season.
Atlantic water temperatures observed this month were just as warm or warmer than they were during March 2005 and March 2020 — both years experienced catastrophic hurricane impacts in the United States.
The unusually warm waters could also support tropical systems forming before the official start of the 2024 Hurricane Season on June 1. Lingering warm waters in the fall could also contribute to tropical threats in November, when activity typically winds down. The hurricane season officially ends on Nov. 30.
Meanwhile, a shift underway in the Pacific Ocean could have major implications on tropical activity thousands of miles away over the Atlantic Ocean, meteorologists say.
Waters near the equator of the eastern Pacific are in the process of changing from an El Niño pattern to a La Niña pattern by mid or late summer.
During an El Niño pattern, waters in the eastern Pacific are warmer than the historical average. In La Niña, sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are cooler than the historical average.
Silva said La Niña often leads to less disruptive winds, known as wind shear, over most of the Atlantic basin. The combination of less wind shear and warmer water provides prime conditions for tropical development.
"The faster the transition to La Niña occurs, the more active the hurricane season is likely to be," explained DaSilva.
"The Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida, and the Carolinas are at a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season," said DaSilva. "All residents and interests along the U.S. coast, including Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, should have a hurricane plan in place and always be fully prepared for a direct impact."
AccuWeather meteorologists say impacts from climate change are increasing the odds of devastating landfalls.
"We do not see a relationship yet between global warming and the total number of storms, the increase we are seeing is in the intensity of storms," said AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
Anderson says there is a clear trend of hurricanes unleashing more heavy rainfall, as well as pushing more storm surge into coastal areas.
"The warming of the oceans also causes sea levels to rise. The volume of water increases as temperatures rise. Thermal expansion, combined with the melting of land-based glaciers due to climate change, has resulted in a steady rise in sea level, especially along portions of the U.S. East Coast," said Anderson. "The same exact landfalling hurricane, in terms of strength and track with a similar tide, will produce significantly more coastal flooding along exposed areas, compared to a storm 30 to 50 years ago. Water is the No. 1 killer with hurricanes."
Based on a 30-year average from 1991 to 2020, the typical Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher storm, and a storm is classified as a Category 3 when maximum sustained winds are at least 111 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University will release their first predictions in the coming weeks.
The warm water temperatures combined with La Niña means there is high confidence for a "hyperactive" season, with "the core uncertainty is therefore whether the upcoming hurricane season will be crazy busy, or merely pretty busy," said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger.
Peter Malbin ✉
Peter Malbin, a Newsmax writer, covers news and politics. He has 30 years of news experience, including for the New York Times, New York Post and Newsweek.com.
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