Rasmussen Poll: 36% Say Stock Market to Rise Next Year

A smaller share of Americans now say that stocks will be trading higher next year than they did at the beginning of President Donald Trump's second term, according to a new Rasmussen poll.

The survey found that 36% of American adults say the stock market will be higher a year from now, while 28% say it will be lower. Another 21% say it will be about the same a year from now, and 15% aren't sure.

The most recent data represents a 4-point drop in stock market confidence from February, when 40% said they thought the stock market would rise next year.

Trump was inaugurated on Jan. 20.

According to the poll, a 52% majority of U.S. adults say that it's likely the country will enter a depression like the one in the 1930s, including 21% who say it's very likely. Thirty-seven percent say another Great Depression isn't likely in the next few years, while 11% aren't sure. The share of those who say they're expecting a depression ahead has ticked up from 49% in February; in 2023, 55% said they considered such a scenario likely.

Among those who say they expect the stock market to fall next year, 83% say another Great Depression is at least somewhat likely within the next few years.

Broken down by political party affiliation, 67% of Democrats say the United States is likely headed for a 1930s-style depression in the near future, while 38% of Republicans and 50% of independents say the same.

Fifty-seven percent of Republicans, 25% of Democrats, and 30% of independents say they expect higher stock prices a year from now, while 38% of Democrats, 18% of Republicans, and 25% of independents say they expect lower prices. Twenty-six percent of Democrats, 16% of Republicans, and 21% of independents say stock prices will be about the same next year.

The survey found that 55% of white voters, 48% of black voters, and 49% of Hispanic voters and other minority groups say it is at least somewhat likely that the U.S. will enter another Great Depression. Hispanic voters are the most likely to say that the stock market will be higher a year from now.

Adults younger than 30 are the most likely to say they expect the country to enter another 1930s-like depression within the next few years.

According to the poll, women younger than 40 are the most pessimistic about the future of the stock market, with 37% saying it will be lower next year and 70% saying the U.S. will experience another depression soon. Men were much more likely than women to say the stock market will be higher next year, 43% to 30%, respectively.

The poll was conducted July 16-17 and 20 and surveyed 1,237 U.S. adults. The margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

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